West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 79. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 79. East winds up to 20 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 84. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 73. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 85. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 82. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 70 to 77. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 63. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 70 to 77. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 67 to 83. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows 56 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 67 to 83. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Update

Latest trends show that moderate turbulence has subsided across and along leeward sites of the islands, therefore have canceled AIRMET Tango.

Synopsis

Relatively benign conditions with breezy east to southeast winds will persist through the weekend amidst an approaching front stalling just west of the islands. This pattern will favor showers along southeast and east-facing slopes with sea breezes, and sea breeze showers, potentially developing within sheltered leeward and interior areas. Strengthening southerly flow is anticipated to pull deep tropical moisture northward over the islands next week, bringing an increasing chance for a wetter and more unsettled pattern.

Aviation

Trade winds will continue for Thursday, pulling slightly more southeasterly during the day before returning more easterly Thursday night. Intermittent windward and mountain shower activity will continue, and with it periodic MVFR conditions for those impacted sites under showers, but otherwise expect VFR to prevail.

Marine

High pressure situated far to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will produce fresh to strong east-southeasterly trade winds today. Winds ease slightly Thursday night into Friday as a front passes north of the islands, and winds may even shift southerly just west of Kauai for a time before fresh to strong east-southeast winds return Friday night. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Friday evening for most of the waters around the Big Island and Maui, where winds are typically enhanced by terrain interaction. This general wind pattern is likely to hold through the weekend. Then, a large low pressure system approaching from the west this weekend will stalls out northwest of the islands beginning early next week. Winds veer more southerly in response to the low's cold front making a close approach, or even entering the northwest offshore waters, by mid- week. Strong southerly winds will be possible depending on how close the cold front gets to the islands.
Surf along north- and west-facing shores will remain small as a series of small long- to medium-period west to northwest swells reach the Hawaiian Islands over the next week or so. The current northwest swell reaches a nadir today as very little wave energy is being detected from that direction by buoy observations this morning. The forerunners of a small west-northwest swell are anticipated to arrive this afternoon/evening, and peak Friday night, followed by another small northwest swell that maintains the small surf through the weekend. A compact storm-force low currently just off the coast of Japan will likely produce another small west-northwest swell early next week.
Choppy east shore surf will remain near seasonal averages as east-southeasterly trade winds vary minimally over the next few days, with a chance for a slight increase over the weekend. Surf along east facing shores then declines early next week as winds veer southerly. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the weekend, but may increase and become choppier with the shift to a more southerly wind direction early next week. A small long-period south swell is also possible around Tuesday of next week.

Prev discussion

Weather conditions remain relatively benign with breezy east to southeast winds through the weekend. Overall low-level flow is anticipated to remain east-southeast during this time, leading to showers favoring southeast- and east-facing slopes. Sea and land breezes over sheltered leeward and interior areas are possible, and could result in shower development during the afternoon, followed by clearing at night. Overall rainfall amounts through the weekend are expected to remain light with little impact. Model guidance continues to portray a front stalling just west of the islands this weekend as it encounters the deep ridge just northeast of the islands.
Things become a bit more interesting by early next week as model guidance continues to support an area of low pressure moving toward the state, resulting in low-level flow veering more southerly and strengthening. This flow is expected to pull tropical moisture northward over the Hawaiian Islands by midweek next week, persisting through the outlook period. Current model total precipitable water (PWATs) normalized anomalies show nearly three standard deviations above normal, equating to 40 to 46 mm PWATs (1.6 to 1.8 inches, respectively). This moist southerly flow, in conjunction with instability associated with nearby upper-level disturbances, could support a wetter and more unsettled pattern through much of next week.
Latest model guidance has shown an improved agreement regarding the overall pattern evolution next week, leading to increased confidence. However, uncertainty remains regarding the exact location of the deepest moisture and the strength of the southerly winds, especially given the long range time frame.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov