West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 69 to 76. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 70 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 61 to 76. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 70 to 88. East winds around 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A ridge to the north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds into the weekend. Limited clouds and showers will be focused along windward and mauka areas this morning. A drier airmass is moving in from the east and is expected to further limit shower activity into the weekend. Higher than normal dewpoints will continue to bring muggier conditions to the islands today.

Discussion

No significant changes to the forecast at this time. The PoPs and associated grids were tweaked to be more in line with the latest NBM data. The overall forecast has changed little.
A 1036 mb high remains far north-northeast of the islands with an associated ridge near 40N. A weak trough moving through the islands overnight will continue to move to the west and dissipate over the next day or two. The high is expected to sink southward slowly over the next couple of day as it slowly weakens. The result will be little change in our trade winds. Generally moderate trades are expected with some locally breezy conditions.
Satellite derived precipitable water shows a drier airmass will be moving into the islands later today, and lingering into the weekend. Expect some more typical trade winds showers this morning, and then as we head into tonight, a decrease in shower activity.
Dewpoints have been in the low 70s in many locations the last couple of days, making it feel muggier than normal. The models show another day of these dewpoints, with dewpoints slowly dropping back into the 60s starting late tonight/early tomorrow.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. low cigs and SHRA expected along windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in SHRA otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conds should improve mid morning.
AIRMET Tango is not currently in effect but may be needed over the next few days for mod turb downwind of terrain due to the winds.

Marine

Surface high pressure far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through this afternoon before declining slightly to become moderate to fresh through the rest of the forecast period. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through this afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island and may need to be extended through tonight.
A small, medium-period south swell will gradually decline through tonight. This fading swell combined with a series of small, medium- to long-period south-southwesterly swells, will deliver below-average surf along south-facing shores through Friday. Over the holiday weekend and into early next week, a small to moderate, long-period south-southwest swell will arrive, boosting surf heights to near or slightly above average.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy and may increase today as trade winds briefly strengthen. Surf along north facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period, with a minor uptick possible Friday into the holiday weekend as a small, medium-period northwest swell arrives.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov