Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 70. East northeast wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind around 11 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 90. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east northeast in the evening.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 89. East northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Scattered showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Windy, with an east wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Central Maui

Today: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Windy, with a northeast wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. East northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 73. West wind 7 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. East northeast wind around 13 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 73. East northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

East Maui

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. East wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. East northeast wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph becoming light north northeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. East northeast wind around 11 mph.

Tuesday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. East northeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Breezy, with an east wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 90. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge north of the islands will remain in place into the weekend producing moderate to breezy trade winds across the state. A narrow upper trough and passing low level disturbances will produce periods of showers favoring the windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning time periods. Showery trade wind weather will likely hold into Friday. Long range models are suggesting slight drying trends by this weekend.

Discussion

The satellite imagery this morning continues to show a narrow upper trough in place just north of the Hawaiian Islands. A subtropical jet stream south of this upper trough will continue to produce periods of high level cirrus clouds over the islands through the week. These upper level features will continue to weaken the trade wind inversion heights above the 8000 foot level, allowing deeper cloud heights, and above normal rainfall coverage for this time of year. Cirrus clouds will continue to enhance sunrise and sunset colors across the state.
In the lower atmosphere, a weak trough shown on satellite imagery and 700 mb streamlines, is currently located over the eastern Hawaiian Islands. This system will continue to drift slowly westward across the state into Tuesday. The low level convergence associated with this trough will enhance shower activity across the eastern islands today. A lesser increase in shower activity is forecast for the western islands through tonight. Another low level disturbance will drift from east to west across the Hawaiian Islands on Wednesday and Thursday producing another round of enhanced showers across the state.
The wind pattern remains the same with a fairly strong high pressure ridge locked in place north of the state. This ridge will produce moderate to breezy winds across the region. Periods of showers are expected favoring the windward and mountain areas, trending higher in the overnight to early morning hours. Expect some of the stronger showers to spread into leeward areas of each island. This enhanced shower regime will likely hold into Friday. Long range models are suggesting slight drying trends by this weekend.

Aviation

Locally strong trade winds will persist as surface high pressure to the N maintains a tight low-level pressure gradient over the area. AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence over and downstream of the terrain will remain posted for all islands.
Modest instability associated with a nearby upper-level trough will combine with low-level moisture moving in from the E to fuel windward showers. While VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals and over most leeward areas, periods of MVFR VIS/CIG in SHRA are expected over windward areas, potentially requiring an AIRMET for mountain obscuration. AIRMET SIERRA is currently posted for windward slopes of Oahu.

Marine

High pressure centered north of the state in a zonal orientation across 40N latitude will be the dominating weather feature this week. This high, in relation to lower equatorial pressure, will keep the north to northeast pressure gradient tight across the area. This will continue to support fresh easterly trade winds over both the nearshore and offshore Hawaiian waters. Locally strong trades has a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in effect for the waters east of and including the Kaiwi Channel through this afternoon. The SCA continues through Tuesday afternoon for the typical windier zones surrounding Maui County and Big Island. There is a high likelihood that this SCA will need to be extended through mid week.
Background southerly swell will maintain very small surf along south facing shorelines. Fresh easterly trades will hold short period, slightly elevated wind waves along many eastern exposures. Recent gales traveling around New Zealand are sending swells northward toward Hawaii. These long period, small south swells are timed to arrive late in the week and provide a minor bump to south coast surf.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for all eastern channels and coastal waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov