Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 15 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist for the next several days and will likely ease slightly during the middle to latter part of the week. A typical rainfall pattern will focus rainfall along windward areas, with a few showers reaching leeward sections of the smaller islands at times. Meanwhile leeward portions of the Big Island will see a few showers each afternoon and during the overnight hours.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 1400 miles northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions across much of the state, with a bit more cloud cover over leeward Big Island. Radar imagery shows a few light showers moving into windward areas, as well as along the leeward Big Island coast, with rain free conditions over leeward areas on the smaller islands. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends.
High pressure northeast of the state will gradually build further northeast and strengthen during the next few days, while a weak front edges closer to the islands before stalling out around 600-700 miles northwest of Kauai early in the work week. This front will weaken the ridging north of the islands, resulting in a gradual decrease in trade wind speeds during the middle to latter part of next week. Overall moderate to at times locally breezy trade winds will prevail through Wednesday, with a slow easing through the remainder of the week into next weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, very typical June weather will prevail, with bands of showery low clouds moving through the islands at times. Showers will be most prevalent in windward areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers reaching leeward areas of the smaller islands from time to time. A few showers will affect leeward Big Island each day as well, mainly in the afternoon and overnight hours.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through the TAF period, with showers concentrated mainly across windward sections and in channels between islands through tonight. Current radar data shows mainly isolated showers this morning across the region, remaining limited in areal coverage by drier air flowing into the islands from the east. Satellite data shows an area of lower clouds expanding in areal coverage toward the islands, as low level moisture maneuvers underneath a weak trade wind inversion. Otherwise, sea breeze clouds and isolated showers are expected to develop this afternoon over sheltered leeward locations, before diminishing tonight as winds trend toward land breeze circulations.
VFR conds are expected across most TAF locations today, however MVFR cigs will occasionally continue to drift across mainly windward areas, generating the need for AIRMET Sierra due to tempo mountain obscurations. Across Maui to the Big Island, locally breezy trades will continue a potential period of low level mechanical turbulence and possible need for AIRMET Tango downwind of mountains today.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trade winds will persist as high pressure remains anchored far northeast of the area. The Small Craft Advisory for the typically windier zones around Maui County and Big Island has been extended through tomorrow afternoon. Winds may ease slightly tomorrow night into Tuesday.
Hanalei buoy is showings signs that the new, small, medium period northwest swell has arrived. This swell is expected to continue to fill in through the rest of day, peak tonight, and subside tomorrow into Tuesday. As a result, expect small surf along north and west facing shores to continue through this time frame. The current long- period south- southwest swell will maintain near to slightly above average surf along south, and to a lesser extent west, facing shores through today. This swell will slowly subside tonight into early tomorrow, and thus surf will drop a notch. A new long period south swell is anticipated to fill in tomorrow, peak Tuesday, hold into Wednesday, then slowly subside into the second half of next week. This swell is expected to bring above average surf for south facing shores. Moderate to fresh trades will continue to generate rough, choppy surf along east facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov