Photo Credit: Laila Reiss

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 85. Northeast winds around 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 84. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 69. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will decrease slightly into the weekend. Rainfall will favor windward slopes, with an increase in shower activity expected Friday into Sunday. This trade wind weather pattern will prevail into next week.

Discussion

Trade winds will decrease slightly today through the weekend as surface ridging to our north weakens. A ragged area of increased moisture embedded within trade flow will fuel an increase in showers over windward portions of the Big Island and Maui this morning before spreading westward during the afternoon. Total rainfall will be light. High clouds will thicken as an upper trough to the west drifts eastward.
Ridging to our north will weaken over the next few days as a front passes by, also causing a decrease in airmass stability. This may trigger an increase in shower activity and cloud cover, mainly tonight and Saturday. Trade winds will become breezy again early next week as high pressure rebuilds north of the state. A strengthening upper ridge across the islands will stabilize our airmass and support a typical pattern of mainly windward rainfall. Models show that the remnants of the above mentioned front may get caught up in trade wind flow and provide a boost to windward rainfall around Wednesday.

Aviation

Stable and breezy trade wind conditions will prevail, with clouds and brief showers favoring the typical windward locations through the morning hours.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper level turbulence over the entire state and will likely continue through the day.
AIRMET Tango is also in place for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of island terrain due to breezy trade winds.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds will persist through this evening. High pressure just north of the state is forecast to shift south and weaken this weekend as a cold front approaches from the north. This will translate to a slight drop off in winds Saturday into early Sunday. High pressure building in behind the front early next week will re-tighten the upstream pressure gradient and result in fresh to locally strong trades. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier zones around Maui and Big Island will be in effect through this afternoon. There will be a brief moment over the weekend where winds will fall below SCA criteria. SCA conditions are forecast to return across the more notorious windier zones surrounding Maui County and Big Island late Sunday and then, with strengthening trades, expand westward across the majority of the remaining marines zones by Tuesday.
Surf along east-facing shores will generally remain rough and choppy, but will subtly subside this weekend in response to the aforementioned weakening ridge and subsequent lighter winds. Surf along eastern exposures will again become more rough and choppy through most of next week as fresh to locally strong trades make a comeback. The lack of any north swell equates to very small weekend surf along north and west-facing shores. The only exception will be along more east-facing exposures that receive some trade swell wrap. The next mentionable north swell will be from the arrival of a small, medium period (360 degree) swell mid next week. South surf will remain small for the foreseeable future as very small, short period southeast to southwest swells roll in.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST early this morning for Oahu Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kaiwi Channel, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov