Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 84. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 85. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with occasional showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to 58 to 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 86. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 66. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with occasional showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to 58 to 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 74 to 84. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 69. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue through Tuesday. Rather dry conditions will prevail today, with a band of moisture expected to increase trade wind showers late tonight and Tuesday. The trades will ease Tuesday night and Wednesday, with drier trade wind weather moving back in. A shift to a land and sea breeze pattern is expected Wednesday night, with this pattern lingering into next weekend. Light winds will keep showers near the coast at night and over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. A return of light to moderate trades and windward focused showers is possible by the end of the weekend.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 1000 miles north of Honolulu, and is driving moderate to breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly conditions, with a bit more cloud cover in some windward areas. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers moving into windward portions of the islands, with mainly dry conditions in leeward locales. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances.
A ridge of high pressure north of the islands will settle slowly east-southeastward during the next couple days, keeping breezy trade winds blowing across the state. A front passing by north of the islands will ease the trades Wednesday with light and variable winds expected Thursday through Saturday with sea and land breezes common statewide. A new high building northwest of the islands could bring a return of light to moderate trades by the end of the weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, rather dry and stable trade wind weather will prevail today, with light showers mainly affecting windward slopes and coasts. A band of enhanced moisture associated with an old front will move through the islands late tonight and Tuesday, increasing showers in windward areas and sending a few more showers into leeward locales. Drier conditions should move back into the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, with mainly windward showers expected. A land and sea breeze pattern will set up Wednesday night and continue through Saturday. No significant rainfall is expected during this time, with showers holding mainly near the coast each night and over interior areas during the afternoon hours. A return of the trades should focus showers back over windward areas by the end of the weekend.

Aviation

The high pressure ridge far north of the islands will weaken and drift closer to the islands over the next few days as a cold front approaches from the north. Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue through this evening, then weaken starting on Tuesday. Scattered showers remain in the forecast for most areas through this evening favoring windward and mountain sections of each island. Shower trends will increase and become numerous after midnight as unstable clouds from an old cold front slowly drift through the islands on Tuesday morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 9000 feet, over and immediately southwest through northwest of mountains. This AIRMET will likely remain in effect through this evening due to breezy easterly trade winds.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through Tuesday, then ease into the moderate category Tuesday night through Wednesday as a front passes to the north. This will allow the Small Craft Advisory to be scaled back to the waters around Maui County and the Big Island today. Guidance shows the tail-end of the aforementioned front drifting southward into the area through the second half of the week, which will lead to light winds with localized land and sea breezes near the coasts beginning Wednesday night into Thursday. Ridge nosing eastward trailing this boundary will lead to the background flow shifting out of northeast through the weekend.
Surf along south facing shores will steadily lower through Tuesday as the long-period south swell moves out. Another long- period background pulse due tonight will be enough to keep the surf from going flat Tuesday through midweek. Thereafter, a combo of small southeast and southerly energy moving through with background level surf anticipated through the rest of the week. For the long range, a gale moving through the Tasman Sea over the next couple of days could provide a small long-period south- southwest swell early next week, potentially arriving early next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain up into Tuesday, then lower Wednesday through the second half of the week as the trades relax locally and upstream.
Surf along north facing shores will remain small through the first half of the week, then trend up through the second half. Guidance shows a broad gale setting up over the far northern Pacific near the Aleutians (east of the Date Line) around midweek with a large/broad fetch expanding southward Wednesday through Thursday with winds focused down the 335-350 degree directional band relative to the islands. This will drive a moderate medium-period north-northwest swell through the islands beginning late Thursday with a peak expected Friday night through the weekend. Heights may reach the advisory level for north facing shores as it peaks, which may be long-lived/broad peak with the system projected to stall south of Kodiak Friday through Saturday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov