Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 86 to 91. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 86 to 91. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 65 to 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 65 to 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds becoming northeast up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 90. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A ridge of high pressure north of the state will keep trade winds blowing through the next 7 days, although they will be somewhat lighter today allowing for some localized land and sea breezes. Pockets of moisture will get caught up in the trades through the period, bringing some showery conditions to windward areas at times and sending a few showers into leeward communities as well.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a ridge of high pressure is positioned around 800 miles northeast of Honolulu, while the weak remnant trough of former Tropical Cyclone Jova is moving through the central islands. Farther east, Tropical Depression 12E is located around 1150 miles east-southeast of Hilo. The local gradient is producing light to moderate trade winds this morning, with land breezes present in sheltered leeward areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions across much of the state. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with some of these showers spilling over into leeward communities. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends during the couple days.
The trades are expected to strengthen from east to west across the state today, with moderate to locally breezy conditions expected by late this afternoon as the remnant trough of former Tropical Cyclone Jova shifts west of the state. A ridge of high pressure north of the islands should then hold the trades at moderate to locally breezy levels through late next week.
As for the remaining forecast details, expect rather showery conditions over windward areas early this morning as the remnant trough of former Tropical Cyclone Jova moves through the islands. A drier airmass is expected to move in from east to west across the state later today, although localized sea breezes may bring a scattered convective showers to leeward areas this afternoon. A fairly typical trade wind pattern is then expected to return from east to west across the state tonight and Sunday, with this pattern then holding through late next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers reaching leeward communities at times as well.

Aviation

A hybrid light to moderate trade wind and sea breeze pattern will continue today. Afternoon sea breezes will develop during the late morning to afternoon hours along more terrain sheltered western slopes. Trade wind speeds will increase from east to west as the trough passes each island. Moderate to locally breezy trades will return for most areas this afternoon to evening. A westward moving low level trough, associated with the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Jova, will increase clouds and showers through the morning hours. Brief showers over island interior sections are possible by afternoon due to the increase in moisture and instability with the passing trough.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration across north through east sections of each island this morning. This AIRMET will likely decrease in coverage later this morning.

Marine

High pressure ridge to the north, and a remnant trough of former Tropical Cyclone Jova moving through the islands will bring increased shower activity to the waters today. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued starting at 6 AM HST today through Sunday night for the typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. SCA conditions are expected to last through the first half of next week as trade winds settle at moderate to locally strong levels.
A small, long period swell is expected to fill in later today, with forerunners expected through the morning hours. The swell energy will peak Sunday, and then slowly decrease into next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain on the small side through the weekend. No significant swells are expected to affect the north and west facing shores through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov