Photo Credit: Leosan Miguel

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 88. South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 87. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows 66 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows 65 to 70. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Northwest winds around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. Light winds.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 65. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 72 to 89. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 58 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A mostly dry weather regime will continue into next week. However, there is potential for increased windward showers this weekend on Kauai. Light and variable winds will prevail, except for a brief period of trade winds from Saturday to Monday.

Discussion

Our benign weather pattern persists and forecast philosophy is unchanged from last evening. The subtropical ridge has been displaced southward across the main Hawaiian Islands by an encroaching front to the north. Winds across local waters are light and variable, allowing development of a diurnal land breeze/sea breeze pattern statewide. The northeast to southwest orientation of the ridge allows light trade winds to reach portions of the Big Island. Satellite loop shows scattered low clouds to clear skies across the smaller islands, with residual patchy broken cloud cover still noticeable across windward Big Island slopes. Radar shows little or no shower activity across the chain. Overnight soundings show a stable airmass with drier air across the western islands. A strong inversion in the 4500 to 5500 feet layer caps vertical cloud development and keeps rainfall at a minimum.
Models show mostly dry weather and rather light winds will prevail over the next week as ridging remains close to the islands. Expect light to moderate trade winds this weekend, followed by light and variable winds once again by early next week. Our best chance for rain will occur as the front north of Kauai approaches and stalls over the next couple of days, with trade winds focusing moisture over windward areas. With winds on the light side, expect afternoon and evening increases in cloud cover and a few showers across mauka areas. Upper troughing with the front will briefly dent the ridge, but will do little to enhance rainfall.

Aviation

Light and variable winds will allow overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes to continue as a weakening front approaches the area. The boundary is forecast to stall and slowly diminish around Kauai tonight through Saturday. A band of clouds accompanying the boundary combined with the background flow shifting out of the north-northeast could bring increasing rainfall chances for northeast facing slopes on Kauai later tonight into Saturday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions will prevail across the state. Periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible in showers, mainly over Kauai.
AIRMET Tango for mod turb between FL250 AND FL350 remains in effect this morning. Otherwise, no AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

A cold frontal system north of the state will break down the high pressure ridge and produce light and variable winds as it stalls out near Kauai this weekend. Light to moderate trade winds will spread across the island waters from Sunday night through Monday. Another cold frontal system moves though the north Central Pacific basin will once again break down the ridge and produce lighter southeast winds across the region from Tuesday onward.
Several overlapping north to northwest swells will keep surf heights from dropping out along north facing shores over the next seven days courtesy of low pressure systems passing south of the Aleutian Islands over the next few days. The current north- northwest (330 degree) medium period swell energy will hold into Saturday. The next north-northwest (340 degree) swell will arrive by Saturday night, and a third north-northwest (320-330 degree) swell will arrive late Monday and linger into the middle of next week.
A series of swells originating in the Southern Hemisphere will keep surf heights boosted along south facing shores into early next week. The wave model guidance shows the next south (180-190 degrees) swell arriving today and linger into Monday. Another smaller medium period southwest (230 degree) swell arrives by Saturday night and also lingers into Monday. Surf will likely remain small along east facing shores into early next week due to the lack of a significant fetch of trade winds upstream of the islands.
Higher than predicted water levels have been observed across the Hawaiian Islands this week. Minor coastal flooding will likely occur during the early morning high astronomical tides near Kauai. A Coastal Flood Statement was issued for vulnerable coastal areas around the island of Kauai from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov