Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 67. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 62. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 64. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 61. Light winds.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 84. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 68. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 85. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure far north of the state will rapidly move eastward, maintaining breezy trade winds through today. A weak front will approach the state from the northwest Thursday, weakening and veering winds southeasterly. This front will stall near the western end of the state Friday into Saturday, increasing shower chances for Kauai and possibly Oahu. The front will diminish by Sunday. Another front will approach the islands near the end of the forecast period.

Discussion

A surface high pressure about 700 miles due north is producing breezy trades. CIMSS imagery shows a dissipating moisture band near Kauai with drier air further north that will filter in today. Latest satellite and radar imagery show an increase in clouds and showers over windward Big Island and Maui in line with nighttime diurnal pattern. Low level clouds embedded in the trade wind flow upstream will continue to impact mostly windward areas over the next day or so with few showers spilling over to leeward areas of the smaller islands.
As the high tracks northeast of the state and ridge will develop north of the state while a cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken and veer more southeasterly Thursday and Friday. The southeasterly flow will allow showers to focus across the southeastern districts of the Big Island, with the remaining islands located in the rain shadow of Big Island's terrain.
Model guidance shows the front will stall and weaken near the western end of the state from late Friday into Saturday. This has the potential to increase showers across Kauai and possibly Oahu throughout this period, though the most recent deterministic models keep the front near or just north of Kauai. Highest confidence for increased clouds and showers is still for the island of Kauai at this time, but will continue to monitor latest guidance as the event nears and details become more clear.
The front is expected to diminish by Sunday. A brief stable, dry weather pattern will return with light to moderate easterly trade winds from Sunday to Monday. Yet another front, will approach the islands from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Given that this is still quite far out, there is low confidence on shower trends. Trade winds will likely become breezy to locally strong by the middle of next week as a slightly strong high pressure builds behind the front.

Aviation

Surface high pressure north of the state will bring moderate to locally breezy conditions to the region through the forecast period. Scattered showers will mainly affect windward locations and bring brief periods of MVFR ceilings/visibility, especially on Kauai. Isolated activity expected elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Kauai due to the clouds and showers. These conditions are expected to remain in place through this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain. This AIRMET will likely remain in place through mid day.

Marine

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaii Region will keep fresh to strong trade winds in the forecast today. The combination of a large north-northwest swell and the locally strong trades will support Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions for all Hawaiian waters through this afternoon. This SCA will then be cancelled for most coastal waters by Thursday due to improving conditions. Winds will weaken and shift out of the southeast or become light and variable from Thursday through Saturday, as a weakening front approaches and moves into the northwest coastal waters.
Buoys continue to report decreasing north-northwest (330-340 degree) swell trends this morning as surf heights along exposed north facing shores will remain at High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels through this afternoon. A HSA remains in effect for most north facing shores today with surf heights along west facing shores falling just below advisory thresholds. The current swell will slowly decrease and completely fall below HSA levels along north facing shores by this evening. Another overlapping medium period north (360 degree) swell will arrive by Thursday, keeping surf heights elevated through Friday. Yet another northwest (320 degree) swell will arrive late Friday, boosting surf heights once again through the weekend. Surf heights for north and west facing shores may reach advisory levels as this swell energy peaks on Saturday.
Surf along east facing shores will become rough and choppy today due to the stronger trades. A downward trend is expected through the second half of the week as the winds diminish. Small surf will continue along south facing shores with only small background swell energy in the forecast.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov