Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 71 to 78. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 89. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 88. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 71 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 90. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the morning, then numerous showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 54 to 59 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then numerous showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. Light winds. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 73. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 68 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 55 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 68 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the morning, then numerous showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 54 to 59 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then numerous showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning. Highs 75 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms early in the morning. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 91. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 78. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 72 to 92. Light winds becoming east 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A wet weather pattern remains in the short range forecast as unstable tropical moisture associated with the remnants Gilma pass just north of the island chain. This will be more of a beneficial rain event for Hawaii and not a wind threat as the best dynamics for wind and weather will remain on the north and east sides of the remnant low center. Additional wet weather will move westward into the islands from Saturday night into Sunday as a weak disturbance associated with the remnants of Hector move through the state. The East Pacific high will drift south and strengthen early next week, increasing stability across the region and keep trade winds blowing from moderate to breezy levels.

Discussion

The satellite picture this morning shows convective showers and thunderstorms developing within a band on the northeast side of the post-tropical remnants of Gilma. Isolated thunderstorms are developing this morning along the southern flank of the surface low center just north of the Big Island. Some of these developing thunderstorms may drift into Maui and Molokai later today as the low center drifts westward. Bands of clouds on the south side of the low will drift into the islands later today spreading periods of clouds and showers from east to west across the state through tonight. Farther to the east a weak disturbance associated with the remnants of Hector are approaching the islands with yet another round of enhanced showers spreading westward across the state from Saturday night into Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern slopes of Molokai, Maui and the Big Island today.
The wind forecast keeps a hybrid light to moderate trade wind and sea breeze pattern through Sunday. These weaker large scale winds are due to the low center of the Gilma remnants passing north of the state, which weakens the local area pressure gradient and the wind speeds. Afternoon sea breezes will tend to build clouds over island mountain and interior sections. Brief showers are possible in this pattern even over areas leeward of island mountains as the background lighter trade winds converge with the onshore sea breeze winds.
Trade winds will then strengthen into the moderate to breezy range by Sunday night, after the remnants of Hector pass through the island chain, and the high pressure ridge builds back over the region. More stable conditions will build into the Hawaii region next week as the Gilma and Hector remnants move out and the high pressure system far northeast of the state builds back in. Brief passing showers will linger mainly over windward and mountain areas next week, and these showers will favor the typical overnight to early morning hours.

Aviation

Trades will be weaker across the island chain as remnants of Gilma pass northwestward along the islands. Deeper moisture levels will enhance SHRA over windward and mauka areas through the rest of today. MVFR conds are possible in SHRA but VFR should generally prevail.
AIRMET Sierra for mtn obsc is in effect for windward portions of all islands as low cigs and SHRA fill in. This will likely be needed for most of today due to the remnants of Gilma.

Marine

Remnants of Gilma, just outside the coastal waters about 60 miles northeast of Hilo is forecasted to pass just north of the islands through tonight. A small area of fresh to strong easterly winds will persist along the northern portion of the circulation of Gilma and affect outer areas of windward waters. Elsewhere, trade winds will decline to gentle to moderate strength and turn northerly ahead of Gilma, then switch out of the southeast to south after the circulation passes by. Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop near Gilma as it moves through. Southeasterly winds will slowly build and become more easterly on Saturday, followed by moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds Sunday through Tuesday. Trades may diminish during the middle of next week.
Surf along east facing shores of Oahu and Kauai could remain slightly elevated for Oahu and Kauai today as short to medium period swell from Gilma moves through. For the rest of the islands, surf along east facing shores will continue to diminish today. Returning trade winds will produce moderate east shore surf Sunday into early next week.
Generally small surf will prevail on other shores. Tiny to small background swells from the south and southeast will keep the surf from going entirely flat for south facing shores. A small northwest swell is expected to slowly fill in today, then diminish during the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov