Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 87. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68. North winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 71. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows around 67. Northeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 87. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows 60 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 86. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light trade winds will prevail over the next few days, allowing for a combination of windward showers mostly at night and a few showers over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. Trade winds will gradually strengthen and more showery conditions will develop over the weekend. A few heavier showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night and Sunday as some frontal remnants and a disturbance aloft move through the islands. Breezy and showery trade wind weather is then expected to continue through the middle of next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a front is located around 250 miles north of Honolulu, with a ridge of high pressure nosing in to the north of the front. This is resulting in light to locally moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning, with land breezes present in many of the more sheltered areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows low clouds moving along with the trades along with high clouds streaming overhead resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers moving into windward slopes and coasts with mainly dry conditions in leeward locales. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade winds trends during the next few days.
A front north of the islands will shift slowly southward during the next couple days, then stall out just to the north of Kauai on Saturday. As a result, the gradient is expected to remain rather weak, with light to locally moderate trade winds prevailing. The winds will likely be light enough during this time for localized land and sea breezes to develop across much of the state. High pressure building to the distant north will gradually push the front or its remnants southward through the islands strengthening the trades late in the weekend, with breezy to locally windy conditions expected from late Sunday through the middle of next week.
As for the remaining weather details, relatively dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the work week. Light showers will favor windward slopes and coasts at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers developing over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. Some frontal moisture may graze Kauai and some deeper tropical moisture appears to work into the Big Island from the east tonight and Friday, providing a bit higher shower coverage in these areas. The GFS and ECMWF continue to display slightly different solutions over the weekend. Will lean the forecast toward the ECMWF solution which has considerable support from its ensemble members, and the GFS appears to be trending in this direction as well.
Friday night and Saturday look to remain relatively dry over the western islands, with some deeper moisture keeping some more showers in place over the eastern end of the state. Eventually, the front or its remnants appear to get caught up in the trades and push into and through the islands Saturday night and Sunday, which should bring some wetter trade wind weather to the entire island chain. There is the potential for some of these showers to be on the heavier side and thunderstorms are not out of the question as a mid-level low passes southward through the state. Additionally, there could be some frozen precip mixed in with rain at times over the high elevations summits of the Big Island. Rather wet trade wind weather then appears to continue through the middle of next week as the mid-level low slowly pushes westward just to the south of the state.

Aviation

A cold front north of the state will continue to slowly drift south and keep light winds in the forecast through Friday. Lighter large scale winds will allow afternoon sea breezes and overnight land breezes to develop over all islands. This will result in some cloud build-ups over island interiors each afternoon, then clearing overnight. A weak ridge aloft will also produce stable conditions across the state with limited clouds and only a few showers possible.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

A surface ridge to the north will remain weak through Saturday as low pressure systems linger well northwest and northeast of the state. Expect land and sea breeze conditions near the coasts, with diurnally driven accelerations potentially leading to fresh breezes during the afternoons. Moderate to locally strong trade winds will build over the state by Saturday evening as the ridge and high pressure strengthens to the north. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will like be issued for the windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. By the middle of next week, trade winds are expected to further strengthen to fresh to strong and Small Craft Advisories (SCA) will likely be in place for most coastal zones.
North and east facing shores has continued to rise overnight as a short- to medium- period north-northeast swell builds in with reinforcing pulses out of the north- northeast keeping surf elevated through at least the middle of next week. Surf will approach High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels for east-facing shores today. Reinforcements Friday into Saturday will likely bring surf to HSA criteria for east shores while north- facing exposures are expected to remain below advisory levels (15 ft faces). An SCA may be issued for select windward waters over the weekend due to seas above 10 feet during the peak of the swell. Also, an overlapping small long- period northerly swell could arrive late Sunday into early next week. Strengthening trade winds next week will likely continue the large and choppy surf through the forecast period.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small as the tiny long- period swell from the south- southwest, will hold tonight before declining Thursday. A slightly larger south swell is possible this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov