Hurricane Fausto continues to weaken as it approaches Hawaiian Islands, forecasters say

Hurricane Fausto is expected to keep weakening as it tracks toward the Hawaiian Islands this week, with the storm’s strongest winds and heaviest rainfall forecast to stay north of the island chain, according to the National Weather Service’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu.

Forecasters have high confidence that swells generated by Fausto will reach the islands well ahead of the storm itself, producing increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to build steadily westward across the state over the next few days as the storm approaches and passes to the north, the center said in its 5 a.m. advisory Sunday. Swimmers and surfers are urged to use caution in the water.

Fausto’s cloud structure has been losing organization on satellite imagery, with dry air eroding the storm’s inner core, according to the advisory. Forecasters lowered the storm’s intensity to 86 mph as of Sunday morning, with estimates from reconnaissance data ranging from about 78 to 94 mph. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a NOAA G-IV jet were scheduled to fly into the storm later Sunday to help refine the track and intensity forecast.

The hurricane was moving west at about 14 mph, a motion expected to continue over the next several days as Fausto remains steered by a ridge of high pressure to its north. On the forecast track, Fausto is expected to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Continued dry air is expected to keep weakening the storm over the next 24 to 36 hours, and increasing wind shear should hasten that process even further. By the time Fausto reaches the islands, forecasters expect it to have weakened to a tropical storm, with its strongest winds confined to the northern side of the circulation. The system is forecast to lose its convective organization and become a remnant low within five days.

There are no watches or warnings in effect for Maui County. County and state emergency officials have urged residents to prepare ahead of the storm, including checking on kūpuna, people with disabilities and unsheltered ʻohana, and to have emergency supplies on hand.

Updates on Fausto are available at hurricanes.gov.

This story will be updated as new advisories are issued. Read Maui Now’s previous coverage: Hurricane Fausto predicted to weaken; elevated risk of wind and rain impacts for Hawaiian island chain and Maui County officials monitor Hurricane Fausto, encourage residents to prepare for hurricane season.