#Hawaii Economy

A new report shows Hawaiʻi’s wages and productivity have lagged the rest of the country for more than three decades, placing the state among the most economically distressed in the U.S.

Economists say Maui’s tourism industry is “outperforming” other islands as visitors continue to return after the 2023 wildfires, a trend that could help cushion the island from an overall weakening economy.

UHERO forecasts a mild recession in the islands over the next year, with the weakening US economy threatening a potentially deeper downturn. The Maui condo market has seen a large plunge in activity, with the value of resales down nearly 50% compared with mid-2023. This reflects in part uncertainty over Bill 9.

US Rep. Jill Tokuda and US Sen. Mazie K. Hirono have introduced the Tropical Plant Health Initiative Act, legislation aimed at expanding research and grant funding opportunities to help combat pests and diseases affecting tropical plants including coffee plants, macadamia trees and other iconic Hawaiʻi staples.

Hundreds of supporters gathered at the Hyatt Regency Maui Resort and Spa on Saturday, Aug. 23, 2025, for Maui Economic Development Board’s Ke Alahele Education Fund Benefit Dinner & Auction. Proceeds from the event will go towards MEDB’s STEM programs, providing opportunities for students from kindergarten to careers to build the skills, confidence, and creativity needed to succeed in Hawaiʻi’s future economy.

Op-Ed: Lahaina Strong’s De Andre Makakoa shares his thoughts on the rising trend of pop-up markets in Hawaiʻi saying they provide a positive shift for the local economy.

Rising tariffs and heightened policy uncertainty are expected to add to one-off inflationary pressures by late 2025 and into 2026, with the Honolulu Consumer Price Index projected to increase during this period. These conditions are expected to weigh on economic activity, keeping growth subdued through 2026.

The Senate Committee on Ways and Means received a comprehensive update on Tuesday from the Agribusiness Development Corporation on the development of Hawai‘i’s food and product innovation efforts to help scale up local farmers and entrepreneurs and increase economic resilience. 

A resurgent construction industry in Hawaiʻi is building the state’s economy, even as tourism falters, and offers hope of boosting Maui’s recovery from the devastating August 2023 wildfires. This optimistic outlook comes from the Hawaiʻi state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism’s recent second-quarter statistical and economic report. “The growth in the construction industry […]

Small business owners are increasingly uncertain about economic conditions, according to the latest Small Business Optimism Index released by the National Federation of Independent Business.

The clearest near-term risk is federal layoffs, which could result in a loss of more than 2,000 local jobs, fully offsetting growth in construction and the lift from local tax cuts. Together with other federal policies, this places the Hawaiʻi economy at risk of recession over the next few years, UHERO reports. 

Earlier this summer, UHERO published its analysis of Maui’s legislation to regulate Transient Vacation Rental (TVR) properties, stating, “If the policy is enacted in full, it would increase Maui’s long-term residential housing stock by 13%, representing a dramatic increase in housing supply,” said UHERO’s economists. “Reductions in tourism or property tax revenues would also present serious challenges to Maui County… Understanding the broad impacts of this policy will be key to understanding future economic conditions on Maui.”

While monetary contributions and fundraisers have been helpful, the Kōkua for Maui program offers the public a chance to connect with individuals and businesses and create an added economic boost.

The report shows Maui lost more than $13 million of visitor spending each day in the weeks following the fire. With the planned Oct. 8 reopening of unaffected West Maui resort areas, economists are not anticipating a rush to travel, but a gradual recovery instead.

A total of 88 transpacific flights were canceled in August, representing 23,083 air seats. The passenger count to Kahului Airport decreased by more than 70% after the wildfires from 7,000 a day to 2,000 a day. The loss from business closures and visitor expenditures is estimated to be $11 million a day on Maui since Aug. 9, 2023.

Department officials say many economists believe that the US economy will experience a recession during the second half of 2023. However, the Hawai‘i economy has not recovered from the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recent developments bring both “promise and peril” for Hawaiʻi, according to the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization’s second quarter forecast for 2023 released today.

Relief may be in sight for Hawai’i at-home food prices, gas, new and used cars — and even rent, according to the latest economic forecast released today by University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization.

After the height of remote work due to the pandemic in 2020, Hawai’i now has about 20% of its workforce still working remotely, at home or in a hybrid arrangement — and that may not change much in the future, according to Hawai’i economist Paul Brewbaker. 

Thanks to strong tourism numbers and improved labor market conditions, Hawai’i’s economy will see little impact from the US recession predicted early next year, according to a new state report released Wednesday.