11 p.m. Flossie “Edging Closer”: Sunday Updates, Aug. 4

August 4, 2019, 12:50 AM HST · Updated August 4, 11:18 PM
Wendy Osher · 11 Comments
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Central Pacific satellite imagery. 11 p.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Erick and Flossie Sunday Updates: http://mauinow.com/?p=308754
Maui Storm Closures/Cancellations/Notices: http://mauinow.com/?p=308555
Storm Impacts for Airports, Harbors, Highways: http://mauinow.com/?p=308580

Note: The next official update from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be posted at 5 a.m. on Monday, Aug. 5, 2019.

(Update: 11 p.m. 8.4.19)

Tropical Depression Flossie Continues to Weaken on its Approach to Hawaii

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The weakening Flossie has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression and will move near the main Hawaiian Islands Monday through Tuesday, according to the latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

“Weakening is forecast during the next couple days, with Flossie becoming a post-tropical remnant low Monday or Monday night, and dissipating on Tuesday,” according to the CPHC.

At 11 p.m., Tropical Depression Flossie was located about 400 miles E of Hilo and 320 miles ESE of Hāna, Maui (near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 151.3 West).

The depression is moving toward the WNW near 15 mph, with a turn toward the NW and a slight decrease in forward speed expected Monday through Tuesday, according to the CPHC.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.

On the water, the CPHC says “swells generated by Flossie will continue to affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands during the next day or two, producing dangerous surf conditions along east and southeast facing shores.”

On land, the CPHC says, “moisture associated with Flossie will spread over portions of the main Hawaiian Islands on Monday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected, with localized higher amounts.”

Flossie 5-day forecast cone. 11 p.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC

Click an image to expand
Flossie. 11 p.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC,
Flossie. 11 p.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC,
Flossie. 11 p.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC,
Hawaii satellite imagery. 11 p.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC,
Central Pacific Satellite imagery. 11 p.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC,
Erick, Flossie and Gil. 11 p.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC,

(Update: 6 p.m. 8.4.19))

Flood Watch Monday to Tuesday morning

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Maui Island, in effect from 6 a.m. Monday to 6 a.m. Tuesday.

“Moisture associated with Tropical Cyclone Flossie moving into the islands from the east, along with an upper level trough just NW of the state, will provide the ingredients for heavy rainfall and possible flooding issues for Maui. As the moisture moves westward, the Flash Flood Watch may need to be expanded to other islands as well,” the NWS said.

(Updated: 5 p.m. 8.4.19)

Flossie Weakens to Tropical Depression, Continues to Move Closer

The weakening Flossie will move near or over the main Hawaiian Islands Monday and Tuesday, according to the latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Moisture associated with Flossie will spread over portions of the main Hawaiian Islands on Monday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected, with localized higher amounts.

At 5 p.m., Tropical Depression Flossie was located about 350 miles E of Hilo, 425 miles ESE of Hāna-Maui, 455 miles ESE of Kahului, 490 miles ESE of Kaunakakai, 480 miles ESE of Lānaʻi City, and 555 miles ESE of Honolulu (near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 149.8 West).

The depression is moving toward the W near 13 mph and is expected to make a turn toward the WNW forecast late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The CPHC says Flossie is expected to weaken to a post-tropical remnant low Monday night.

On the Water, swells generated by Flossie will produce dangerous surf conditions through late Monday, “mainly along east and southeast facing shores,” according to the CPHC.

Erick, Flossie and Gil. 4:30 p.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

(Update: 11 a.m. 8.4.19)

Flossie “Gradually Weakening” as it “Edges Closer to Hawaii

*The update below is provided courtesy the Central Pacific Hurricane Center:

At 11 a.m. the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located about 435 miles E of Hilo near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 148.5 West. Flossie is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so, with a turn toward the northwest forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Flossie will move near or over portions of the main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Flossie is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.

Moisture associated with Flossie will spread over portions of the main Hawaiian Islands late Monday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall.

(Update 5 a.m. 8.4.19)

Flossie Continues Weakening, “Edges Closer to Hawaiʻi

The forecast track for Tropical Cyclone Flossie continues to “trend much closer to the Hawaiian Islands with increasing threats for high surf, potential for flash flooding, strong gusty winds, and thunderstorms,” according to the latest forecast issued by the National Weather Service.

The latest 5-day forecast cone map places Flossie over parts of the Big Island, all of Maui County and Oʻahu as a tropical depression late Monday into Tuesday.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says Flossie will continue gradual weakening over the next two days, and expect the system to be downgraded to a tropical depression on Monday.

At 5 a.m. on Sunday, Aug. 4, Flossie was located 475 miles E of Hilo, 540 miles E of Hāna, Maui, 575 miles ESE of Kahului, 610 miles ESE of Kaunakakai and 600 miles ESE of Lānaʻi City.

According to the CPHC, Flossie is moving toward the W near 14 mph and is forecast to turn toward the NW on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center, according to the CPHC forecast.

“Given average forecast error,” forecasters with the CPHC say, “a Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands later today.” A watch is issued when tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, “producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.”

Forecasters with the NWS say, “Drier air returns late Wednesday into Thursday with increasing trade wind speeds as Flossie moves northwest away from the islands.”

Flossie 5-day forecast track. 5 a.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Click an image to expand
Flossie earliest possible arrival of tropical storm force winds. 5 a.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie, most likely arrival of tropical-storm force winds. 5 a.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie, tropical storm force wind speed probabilities. 5 a.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Erick Moving WNW Over Open Ocean “Far From Land”

At 5 a.m., Tropical Depression Erick was located 740 miles WSW of Hāna, 710 miles WSW of Kahului, 680 miles WSW of Kaunakakai and 680 miles WSW of Lānaʻi City (near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 167.1 West), according to the CPHC.

The depression is moving toward the WNW near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph and Erick is expected to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, then dissipate on Monday, according to the CPHC.

NHC: Gil Expected to Weaken into Remnant Low Later Today

At 5 a.m., Tropical Depression Gil was located 1990 miles ESE of Hilo, 2050 miles ESE of Kailua-Kona, 2025 miles ESE of South Point, 2060 miles ESE of Hāna, 2085 miles ESE of Kahului, 2115 miles ESE of Kaunakakai, 2115 miles ESE of Lānaʻi City, and 2185 miles ESE of Honolulu (near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 125.3 West), according to the CPHC.

The depression is moving toward the W near 10 mph and maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph. “Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Gil is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate by Monday night,” according to forecasters.

Erick, Flossie and Gil satellite imagery 5 a.m. 8.4.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC/NHC.

(Update: 11 p.m. 8.3.19)

Flossie “Edging Closer” to Hawaiian Islands

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says Flossie will move very close to the Hawaiian Islands Monday and Tuesday.

According to the latest CPHC Forecast Discussion, ”the updated official forecast brings the center of Flossie over waters just east of the Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression,” on Monday.

The CPHC says a Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday. A watch is issued when tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

At 11 p.m. on Saturday, Aug. 3, the system was tracked about 550 miles E of HIlo and 615 miles E of Hana, Maui with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.  The system was moving toward the W at 13 mph.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center, according to the CPHC.

The CPHC says swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, “producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.”

Tropical Storm Flossie 5-day forecast cone, 11 p.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Click an image to expand
Flossie, most likely time of tropical storm force winds. 11 p.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie earliest reasonable arrival of tropical storm force winds. 11 p.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie tropical storm force wind speed probabilities. 11 p.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Tropical Depression Erick Moving WNW Far SW of the Main Hawaiian Islands

The CPHC says Erick is expected to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday, then dissipate on Monday.

At 11 p.m. 8.3.19, the center of Tropical Depression Erick was located about 585 miles WSW of Honolulu.

The depression is moving toward the WNW near 14 mph and gas maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph.

Gil Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Gil had weakened to a tropical depression late Saturday night and is expected to dissipate by Monday night.

At 11 p.m. (8.3.19), Gil was located about 1095 miles WSW of the southern tip of Baja California.

The depression is moving toward the W near 12 mph and has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph.

Erick, Flossie and Gil. PC: 11 p.m. 8.3.19 NOAA/CPHC.

Wendy Osher
Wendy Osher leads the Maui Now news team. She is also the news voice of parent company, Pacific Media Group, having served nearly 20 years as News Director for the company’s six Maui radio stations.

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