Photo Credit: Randy Alona Gallegos

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 5 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. West wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Light and variable wind becoming north northeast around 6 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. South southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming northeast in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. East northeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southeast after midnight.

Saturday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming north northeast 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northwest wind around 6 mph.

Saturday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Light and variable wind becoming north northeast around 6 mph.

Saturday: Scattered showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. East southeast wind 5 to 8 mph.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. North northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Saturday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming north northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming north northeast in the evening.

Saturday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Northeast wind 5 to 13 mph becoming south southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A ridge of high pressure settling southward and over the islands will keep winds light through Saturday, with overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes. Dry conditions will prevail with only a few light showers possible over locations near the coast at night and over the island interiors each afternoon. Light to moderate trades will return Sunday through Monday, bringing a more typical, yet drier than normal trade wind pattern featuring mainly windward and mauka showers. Trades are expected to become disrupted again Tuesday, with a land and sea breeze pattern returning. A new cold front may move into the islands Wednesday, bringing a better shot for rainfall, particularly across the western end of the state. A more typical trade wind pattern may return on Thursday.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, an east-west oriented ridge of high pressure is positioned over or just north of Kauai, while a cold front is located 550 miles northwest of the Garden Isle. Light winds prevail over the islands early this morning, with land breezes present in most areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows a few pockets of low clouds and some thin cirrus moving overhead, but generally clear to partly cloudy skies prevail. Radar imagery shows very little if any shower activity over the entire island chain, with only a few light showers periodically moving onshore over windward Big Island. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and wind trends during the next couple days.
The cold front will continue to track southeastward toward the island chain today and tonight, stall out around 50 to 100 miles north of Kauai Saturday, then dissipate Saturday night. This will keep light winds in place over the next couple days, with land and sea breezes developing in most areas. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build north of the islands on Sunday, and this should bring a return of light to moderate trade winds which should continue through Monday. A new cold front appears to approach from the northwest on Tuesday, and this should bring another round of light and variable winds featuring daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes. This secondary cold front may push southward into the islands Wednesday, bringing some light to moderate southerly/southwesterly winds in advance and some moderate to breezy north/northeasterly winds in its wake.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly dry conditions will persist during the next couple days, with an isolated shower or two possible near the coast at night and over the island interiors during the afternoon. There could be a slight increase in shower coverage Saturday and Saturday night as a upper level trough dives southward over the eastern half of the state. A more typical, yet drier than normal, trade wind shower pattern should return Sunday through Monday. The dry pattern is forecast to hold in place Tuesday, although showers should favor locations near the coast at night and interior areas during the afternoon hours in the lighter wind regime. Rain chances should increase on Wednesday, particularly over the western end of the state, if the next front manages to make it southward into the island chain. A more typical trade wind pattern may return for Thursday.

Aviation

A weak surface ridge near the islands will produce light and variable winds across most of the state through tonight. This light background flow will allow local afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to become established. In addition, a mid- level ridge and a lack of significant moisture sources across the region will maintain stable and relatively dry atmospheric conditions with a low-level inversion between 4,500 and 6,000 feet.
The land breezes, which developed last evening, will likely continue to keep cloud cover and showers to a minimum through mid-morning. Once the local sea breeze circulations set up later today, expect some low clouds with a slight chance of showers over interior terrain by this afternoon. There is a possibility of brief localized MVFR conditions over some interior sections during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through this evening.
No AIRMETs are in effect, and none are anticipated through tonight.

Marine

A ridge axis over or just north of Kauai has diminished trade winds. Light winds will continue through Saturday, with trades returning and strengthening to moderate levels Sunday and Monday. The trades will become disrupted again on Tuesday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A series of northwest and north swells over the next several days will cause seas to reach or exceed the 10 foot Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold. An SCA is currently in effect for the waters exposed to these passing large northerly swells.
These current large northwest swells will continue to produce High Surf Advisory level surf along most north and west-facing shores through this afternoon. This swell will gradually lower through Saturday. A slightly smaller advisory level northwest swell is expected to arrive on Saturday then peak Saturday night with a lowering into Sunday.
A moderate size north swell from 360 degrees will fill in Saturday night and Sunday with surf heights possibly reaching low end advisory levels. This swell will lower into Monday night. Some east-facing shores with northerly exposure will experience wrap and an increase in surf from this northerly swell. The more northerly direction of this swell may also increase surf heights along the west-facing shores of Maui. Another fairly large, long period northwest swell is expected to fill in Sunday night and Monday. Surf heights may reach low end warning levels during the peak of this swell late Monday. This swell will slowly decline Tuesday and Wednesday.
There will be a series of background very small, long period southerly swells moving through the middle of next week that will keep surf low along southern shores. Weakening trades will lower this recent eastern shoreline short period choppy surf.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Windward, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Oahu Koolau, Molokai, Maui Windward West, Maui Central Valley, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov