Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Scattered showers late in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 72. North winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 86. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then showers likely late in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then showers likely late in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 63. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through much of the week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations each day as pockets of moisture move through. Outside of a few afternoon showers over the Kona slopes, expect the dry conditions to continue for our leeward areas. A transition to a wet pattern is possible for portions of the state next weekend as an upper disturbance moves into the area.

Discussion

Short-term guidance remains in good agreement through much of the week and shows moderate to breezy easterly trades holding. A weakness in the ridge forming due to a front northwest of the region could translate to a brief period with slightly weaker trades for the western end of the state tonight through Monday. Clouds and showers will focus over windward and mountain locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. Upper trough in place will linger today, then move away from the area Monday. Although confidence remains low due plenty of mid-level dry air, an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out through the afternoon hours today for the Big Island slopes. Rising upper heights and increasing stability are expected early in the week, which will lower the chances for heavy showers and limit accumulations. Expect the dry conditions to prevail for leeward areas.
For the extended period (next weekend), guidance continues to advertise a wet pattern evolving over the western end of the state as an upper low drops south near Kauai. Expect changes in this portion of the forecast over the coming days as confidence begins to increase.

Aviation

High pressure anchored north of the state will continue breezy easterly trades again today, which will focus a bulk of the heaviest showers across windward locations through this evening. This pattern will occasionally generate periods of MVFR cigs and vsby across some windward areas again today. A weak upper level feature drifting across the region will increase moisture and instability, enhancing thunderstorm chances over the Big Island this afternoon.
AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence continues across the islands due to locally gusty easterly trade winds. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for north thru east sections for portions of this islands for tempo mountain obscuration due to clouds and showers.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trades will continue through late this week, with some slight easing possible tonight through Monday night as a front stalls out several hundred miles northwest of the island chain. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island has been extended through 6 PM this evening. The SCA may need to be extended into the evening hours tonight, but should drop below advisory thresholds by midnight.
Very small surf will remain in place along north facing shores today, with a small west-northwest swell providing a minimal boost Monday and Tuesday. Surf will lower to very small levels again Wednesday, with a series of small northwest swells providing another minimal boost to north shore surf Thursday through next weekend.
Fresh to strong trades over and upstream of the islands will keep elevated surf in place along east facing shores through Tuesday. East shore surf will then trend downward slightly from mid week into the weekend.
Several overlapping south swells will keep south shore surf elevated in the 3 to 6 foot range through Tuesday. South shore surf will decrease to small levels Wednesday through Friday, before trending back up next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov