Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. North winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 40 to 54. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 62. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 85. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge will linger north of the Hawaiian Islands over the next seven days producing continued moderate to locally breezy trade winds with periods of passing showers favoring the windward and mountain areas of each island with higher precipitation chances in the overnight to early morning hours. Unstable cloud bands from a dissipated cold front will drift into the islands from the north on Saturday and Sunday producing increasing rainfall coverage over all islands.

Discussion

The satellite picture this morning continues to show a stalled frontal system northwest of the islands with a weak upper low northeast of the state. Clouds moving through the easterly trades are unstable enough to produce brief passing showers over windward and mountain areas with more stable conditions moving into the area from late morning to afternoon.
The subtropical ridge remains in place north of Hawaii today with continued moderate to breezy easterly trade winds and brief passing showers. This upper low will keep some overnight to early morning enhancement of shower activity over windward and mountain areas through tonight, then an upper level ridge builds in over the region with more stable conditions and less shower activity from Wednesday through Friday.
The weather pattern trends wetter from Friday night onward as unstable cloud remnants from a dissipated cold front north of the islands is driven south over the state from Saturday into Monday by a high pressure system moving across the Central Pacific basin. One wrinkle in this forecast that could affect precipitation coverage is an unstable upper low developing over the region, helping to increase cloud heights by lifting trade wind inversion heights, just as the low level remnant cloud bands are drifting through the region. If these features line up properly in the long range forecast we may see a brief period of wet weather over the state by next weekend. Stay tuned.

Aviation

With high pressure remaining entrenched far northeast of the area, trade winds will remain moderate to locally breezy through tonight. Showers and any accompanying MVFR conditions in lower ceilings and visibilities will mainly affect windward and mauka locales statewide. VFR will hold sway otherwise.
AIRMETs for mountain obscuration have been posted for the windward sections of most isles. They may be extended through late this morning.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trades will continue through the weekend, with only minor variations in strength. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect through Wednesday for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island. This SCA will likely need to be extended through the end of the work week and possibly through the weekend.
A series of small northwest swells will move through the islands during the next 7 days, keeping north shore surf from going flat most days.
Fresh to strong trades over and far upstream of the islands will generate trade wind swell that will keep above average surf along east facing shores through Wednesday. Surf will drop to near average levels during the second half of the week into the weekend.
Several overlapping south swells will keep south shore surf elevated today. Surf will then decrease back to seasonal levels Wednesday through Friday, before trending back up over the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov