Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 87 to 92. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 70. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 87 to 92. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 64 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north-northeast of the islands will keep breezy trade winds blowing through Friday, with a slight easing of the trades into the moderate to locally breezy range expected over the weekend into early next week. Relatively dry trade wind weather is expected to prevail, with low clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas, primarily at night and during the early morning hours, with a stray shower reaching leeward communities from time to time. An increase in trade wind showers is possible Saturday through Monday as a disturbance aloft moves over the island chain.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 1500 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, while the remnant low of former Tropical Cyclone Fernanda is located around 600 miles southwest of Kona. The gradient locally is producing moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy conditions in windward areas, with mostly clear skies in leeward locales. Radar imagery shows isolated showers moving into windward slopes and coasts with mainly dry conditions in leeward areas. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends.
Strong high pressure will remain anchored to the distant north- northeast of the state through Friday, keeping breezy trade winds blowing across the island chain. The high will then weaken as it shifts southward and closer to the islands over the weekend into early next week, easing the trades slightly into the moderate to locally breezy range. High pressure looks to strengthen to the north-northeast of the state around the middle of next week, bringing a return of breezy trade winds to the islands.
As for the remaining weather details, very little change in the overall weather pattern is expected through early next week, with pockets of moisture periodically moving through the islands. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a stray shower occasionally reaching leeward communities. There could be a bit of an increase in trade wind shower coverage and intensity over the weekend and into Monday as a mid/upper level trough moves over the island chain.

Aviation

Dry breezy trade winds will continue through the week. Lower clouds and showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas, particularly through the morning hours and again tonight. Expect mainly VFR conditions with brief MVFR conditions possible under passing showers.
AIRMET Tango looks to remain in effect for moderate lee turbulence through much of the week.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through the upcoming weekend as high pressure remains north-northeast of the area. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through Friday afternoon for the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island, which will likely need to be extended through the weekend. Trades may slightly ease early next week as a weakness in the ridge forms north of the area.
Surf along east facing shores will remain up today due to a long- period easterly swell moving through from recent Hurricane Hilary in the far eastern Pacific. Overnight observations at NDBC buoy 51004 southeast of the Big Island and the nearshore PacIOOS buoys continue to reflect this energy centered around the 15 second band. As this source fades through the second half of the week and into the weekend, surf will lower below the summertime average due to a recent stretch of weaker trades far upstream of the state over the eastern Pacific.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through early next week with mainly a mix of south-southeast and south swells moving through. Looking out into the extended period, guidance doesn't show any significant southerly sources developing within our typical swell windows across the southern Pacific, which will translate to the small conditions persisting into September.

Fire weather

The combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity values, and breezy trade winds, will bring elevated fire danger to leeward areas across the island chain during the next few days. Fires that start could become difficult to control as a result of these conditions.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov