Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 80 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 54 to 72. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 54 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 80. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 67 to 89. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail with afternoon sea breezes along terrain sheltered western slopes of each island today. Trade winds will strengthen into the moderate to breezy range as sea breezes diminish from Monday onward. Clouds and passing showers will favor the windward and mountain areas, trending higher in the overnight to early morning hours. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today near Kauai. More stable conditions are forecast from Monday onward with brief passing showers mainly forming over windward and mountain areas.

Discussion

A subtropical high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep trade winds in the forecast through this week. An upper level low roughly 200 miles north of Kauai will continue to drift west today, and then weaken as it moves northward on Monday away from the region. A weak low level trough under this upper low will keep trade winds in the gentle to moderate range for one more day. Upper level forcing from this passing low will enhance shower activity over the western islands, mainly affecting windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Sea breezes will also develop today over terrain sheltered western slopes of each island. Large scale trades and local scale sea breeze winds will converge, producing afternoon clouds and showers over these terrain sheltered leeward locations.
By Monday, the ridge will build into the islands as the upper low weakens and drifts northward away from the region. Trade winds will strengthen into the moderate to breezy range through much of next week. Stronger subsidence under this ridge will stabilize the atmosphere by lowering the trade wind thermal inversion heights and reducing cloud heights. Expect mostly brief passing showers from Monday onward as more stable conditions return to the Hawaii Region.

Aviation

Moderate trades expected through the rest of the weekend. SHRA and low cigs will return to windward and mauka areas. VFR should prevail, with brief periods of MVFR under heavier SHRA.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds today. Monday through midweek, trades are expected to strengthen back to fresh and strong levels, and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island.
No significant south swells are expected through this upcoming week. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast swells will keep south facing shores from going flat.
Typical mostly flat summertime conditions will continue along north facing shores.
East shore surf will remain below normal on today, then trend up closer to seasonal levels early to mid this week as the trades strengthen over and upstream of the islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov