Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 61 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue through tonight, then ease from Thursday into the weekend as the surface ridge weakens to the north. A dry airmass will limit rainfall chances through Thursday, with the best chances remaining over windward and mauka locations during the overnight through the morning periods. A slight increase in moisture associated with a disturbance aloft could lead to increased shower coverage Thursday night through the upcoming weekend.

Discussion

Short-term guidance shows dry trade wind conditions prevailing today as a deep layer ridge remains in place. The upper air soundings reflect this pattern, showing strong subsidence inversions around 5,000 to 6,000 ft with limited moisture available. Peak 24-Hr rainfall totals from the gauges around the state are mostly under a quarter of an inch for windward areas and up to 0.35 inches for leeward sections of the Big Island. No accumulations were recorded over leeward areas of the smaller islands, where drought conditions continue to worsen. Any brief showers that form will favor the typical windward and mauka locations, primarily during the overnight and early morning periods.
The mid- to upper-level ridge will begin to weaken during the second half of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a weak upper low settles north of Kauai and a mid-level trough approaches from the east. The surface ridge will respond by weakening, resulting in the trades easing to light to moderate levels. Upper-level height falls combined with increasing low- level moisture could lead to better windward shower coverage, especially over the weekend as the mid-level trough moves through from east to west. Additionally, a few showers could form over dry leeward areas during the afternoon where localized sea breezes develop.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue. Mostly VFR conditions will prevail with brief periods of MVFR possible in the overnight to early morning hours along windward and mountain slopes.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence over and immediately south through west of all island mountains due to the breezy trade winds.

Marine

A surface ridge north of the state will support moderate to locally strong trade winds through tonight. The ridge should weaken somewhat thereafter, with trade wind speeds slowly diminishing in response. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typical windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through tonight. As the trades ease Thursday, seas will also subside, and the SCA will go away.
The current short-period south swell will fade today. A small, longer period south southwest swell should fill in on Friday and peak over the weekend with surf heights near or slightly above the summer average.
The current small, short-period north-northwest swell will continue to fade out. A few small pulses from the northwest and north northwest are expected tonight into Thursday and will likely keep the surf from going completely flat along north facing shores through the weekend. Short-period wind waves generated by the trade winds will gradually decline over the next several days as the trades ease. Small, long-period E swells from increased E Pacific tropical cyclone activity may arrive from over the next few days, especially over the weekend, leading to a subtle increase in surf heights.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov