Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 86 to 91. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 86 to 91. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 66 to 72. East winds up to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will gradually strengthen today and likely become breezy from Friday through early next week as a surface ridge over the islands lifts northward. Expect predominantly dry and stable weather as the trades return, with clouds and showers mainly affecting windward and mauka locations. Increasing moisture combined with a mid-level disturbance moving through could lead to an increase in windward shower coverage from Sunday night through early next week.

Discussion

A transition to a more typical easterly trade wind pattern is expected today through Friday as a surface trough north of Kauai lifts northwestward and a surface ridge over the islands retreats northward. The early morning satellite imagery depicts a couple of north-to-south oriented low cloud bands approaching, likely marking the leading edge of the incoming breezy trades. As these cloud bands move through over the next day or two, shower coverage could periodically increase, particularly across windward and mauka areas. A mostly dry and stable trade wind pattern will follow and persist through the weekend as the ridge remains north of the area.
For the extended period (Sunday night-early next week), guidance shows an area of deeper moisture advancing westward through the area, with PWs climbing to 1.5 to 2 inches (highest over the Big Island). This surge in moisture combined with a mid-level trough moving through could translate to an increase in windward shower coverage, with some briefly making it into leeward locations of the smaller islands due to a weakened/elevated inversion.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will return today and persist through the weekend. SHRA and low cigs should mainly be focused over windward and mauka locations. Some brief MVFR conds can be expected in any SHRA. VFR conds should generally prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward Big Island.

Marine

A weak trough northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands will continue to drift northwest. Light to gentle southeast flow will give way to trade winds which will gradually strengthen into the moderate to fresh range later today and continue through the weekend. Models show winds across waters around Maui County and the Big Island may briefly reach locally strong conditions, and Small Craft Advisories may be needed through the weekend. As high pressure builds northeast of the waters early next week, moderate to locally strong trade winds will return.
Surf along north facing shores will continue to decline as a short to medium-period north swell fades through the end of the week. North shore surf will return to mostly flat levels over the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will rise to near normal levels Friday through the weekend as trade winds return and strengthen. A mix of background southwest and southeast swells will produce small surf over the next few days. A slight uptick is expected from the south south-west this Friday as a small long period swell moves in and holds through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov