Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 71. South winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and haze. Highs around 82. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 73. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs around 84. South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and haze. Highs 79 to 84. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65. South winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 80 to 85. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 41 to 53. Southwest winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 64 at the summit. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Haze. Highs 70 to 77. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 63. South winds around 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 68 to 83. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. South winds around 10 mph becoming up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 83. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Rather dry and stable weather will persist today as southerly winds gradually strengthen. Scattered showers will remain possible along southeast slopes and coasts this morning, with a few showers developing over the island interiors this afternoon. Showers will slowly increase in coverage and intensity over the western islands tonight into Friday as a weakening front moves in from the west and stalls out near Kauai. A ridge building north of the state should bring a return to drier conditions and light to moderate trades Friday night and Saturday, although an increase in showers is expected across windward Big Island. A new front will bring some unsettled weather to the western islands Sunday through Monday, while drier conditions prevail over the eastern end of the state. A more typical trade wind pattern may return around the middle of next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a ridge axis is centered over the central islands, while a cold front is located around 600 miles west-northwest of Kauai. Light to moderate southeasterly winds prevail in unsheltered areas around the Big Island, with land breezes present elsewhere. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over the western islands, with partly to mostly cloudy skies over the eastern end of the state. Radar imagery shows a scattered light showers moving into southeast facing slopes of Maui, Lanai and the Big Island, with dry conditions elsewhere. Main short term focus revolves around the incoming front late tonight and Friday.
The cold front will approach from the west today, with southerly winds strengthening through the day, reaching moderate speeds over the western islands this afternoon. The front will fizzle out over or near Kauai on Friday, with winds lightening up across the state and land/sea breezes becoming common. The front or its remnants will lift northward Friday night and Saturday, allowing ridging to the north and northeast to become more dominant and bring a return of light of moderate trade winds. The trades won't last long, as yet another approaching front will shift winds southeasterly on Sunday, followed by easing winds and land/sea breezes on Monday as the front weakens west of the state. High pressure building rapidly eastward to the north of the state may re-establish trades again Tuesday and next Wednesday.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly dry and stable weather will continue today. Scattered showers will continue to roll into southeast facing slopes over the eastern islands this morning, with a shower or two possible over the interior of all islands this afternoon. The boundary layer should begin to moisten up tonight, bringing a bit more shower activity northward in the southerly flow. These showers will favor south facing slopes and coasts mainly over the western islands. As deeper moisture associated with the decaying front arrives on Friday, we should see shower coverage and intensity pick up over the western islands, particularly on Kauai where a few downpours will be possible. The eastern end of the state will remain rather dry, with nothing more than a few isolated showers possible during the afternoon hours.
Scattered showers may hold on into the evening hours Friday over Kauai and Oahu, before drier conditions move in after midnight. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions will prevail. Model guidance has backed off on the amount of deep moisture moving into windward Big Island Friday night and Saturday, but an increase in trade wind showers can be expected. Meanwhile, mostly dry weather should prevail on Saturday over the smaller islands. The next front will begin to draw some of the deeper moisture northward into the western islands Saturday night, increasing showers over south facing slopes and coasts.
Model solutions have shifted further west with the next front Sunday through early next week. It still appears that some unsettled weather may affect the western islands Sunday through Monday, with some heavier showers and even a few rumbles of thunder not out of the question. The eastern end of the state appears drier and more stable in the latest model cycle. A return to a more typical trade wind pattern looks to become re- established by the middle of next week.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge near the islands will also keep fairly stable weather conditions in the forecast. Background south to southwest winds will increase over the western half of the state today as a cold front approaches the islands from the northwest. A light to moderate east-southeast wind pattern will continue over the eastern half of the state producing land and sea breezes over Maui County and the Big Island. Clouds will trend towards BKN over island mountain and interior sections each afternoon due to converging sea breezes.
No AIRMETs in effect or expected.

Marine

An approaching front has pushed a ridge of high pressure over the state. Winds over the western half of the state have veered south and will gradually strengthen today to moderate to locally strong speeds around Kauai into this evening. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the waters northeast and northwest of Kauai this afternoon through tonight. Elsewhere moderate south to southeast winds will persist. The front will stall and weaken near Kauai Friday with moderate northeasterly winds filling behind the front and gentle to moderate south southeast winds elsewhere. A ridge will build north of the state again as the front dissipates allowing gentle to moderate east southeast winds to return Saturday. Sunday into early next week, winds will shift out of the south southeast and ease to light and variable over the western and gentle to moderate over the eastern half as another front passes north of the state.
Offshore NOAA buoy 51001 has been trending down overnight and is now more in-line with model guidance. Surf heights locally have lowered below advisory levels for west facing shores, except for west Big Island. North facing shore surf remains elevated, but will gradually trend down through the day. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) for west facing shores has been cancelled, except for west Big Island where surf heights will remain up through the day. The HSA for north facing shores has been extended through this afternoon but may be dropped earlier if swell drops faster than expected.
The next significant large, medium period west-northwest swell is expected Friday night into Saturday that could boost surf back well into advisory levels before subsiding through the weekend. An overlapping moderate, medium period north northwest swell is also possible later in the weekend.
Surf along east and south facing shores will remain small through the week, though a modest uptick in waves on the south shore is expected to hold into the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov