Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 73 to 84. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 64 to 71. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 72 to 84. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny and haze. Highs 75 to 86. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 67. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 75 to 85. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 67. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 51 to 70. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 69 to 80. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 58 to 65. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 68 to 79. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 67 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 54 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 68 to 85. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Remnant clouds from the dissipated front will continue to drift northward away from the islands this morning. Stable weather conditions will return today across much of the state into Sunday with light to moderate easterly trade winds. The next cold front will approach Kauai on Sunday and developing southerly winds will build clouds and showers along a wind convergence zone near Kauai and Oahu. The front stalls out near Kauai on Monday with the potential for locally heavy showers and thunderstorms spreading as far east as Maui. Weather conditions should improve starting Monday night with more typical trade wind showers returning from Tuesday onward.

Discussion

The satellite imagery this morning shows clouds associated with the now dissipated cold front drifting northward under a shield of cirrus clouds near Kauai. Another band of clouds is drifting into the Big Island and east Maui from the southeast direction and will likely enhance showers over the exposed slopes of both islands this morning.
The short range forecast remains the same with a brief period of stable trade winds returning to the Hawaii region into Sunday. Another cold front will approach the islands from the northwest direction on Sunday, south to southwesterly winds will strengthen in the warm sector east of the frontal cloud band. The latest forecast guidance continues to show a surface wind convergence band producing deeper clouds and showers near Kauai and Oahu on Sunday ahead of the front. Slow moving showers under this band may become locally heavy at times, increasing the potential for localized flash flooding. The front appears to weaken considerably as it stalls out near Kauai on Monday. Upper level troughing combined with low level wind convergence may be enough to spread showers as far east as Maui and possibly trigger a few thunderstorms.
Weather trends improve from Monday night into Tuesday as the front dissipates and a high pressure system passes north of the Hawaiian Islands. Easterly trade winds will be slightly enhanced by upper level troughing, with passing trade wind showers focused mainly along windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Passing showers will diminish with drying trends from Thursday onward due to a strong upper level ridge building in directly over the island chain.

Aviation

Light to moderate E/SE trade winds will continue through tonight as high pressure moves north of the islands. VFR conditions will generally prevail across the state, but an area of increased moisture moving into windward and SE portions of the Big Island will bring periods of MVFR clouds and showers through the day. A cold front will approach the state from the northwest on Sunday bringing a return of southerly winds along with widespread clouds and showers to the western half of the state.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward and SE portions of the Big Island, with conditions lingering through the day.

Marine

Strong high pressure will persist over the Northeast Pacific. A weak stationary front near Kauai will dissipate by this afternoon. A second front will approach Kauai from the northwest on Monday, but the strong high to the northeast will once again prevent its eastward advance across the islands.
Light to moderate trade will become reestablished by this afternoon and persist into Sunday morning. Later in the day on Sunday, winds over the western end of the state will weaken and veer to the south- southwest in response to the approaching cold front.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the typical windy areas around Maui County (minus Maalaea Bay) and the Big Island through this evening. An SCA is also in effect for the northern and western waters due to rough seas from an incoming northwest swell through this afternoon.
The current large, medium period, west-northwest swell (310 degrees) is at its peak and will gradually decline through Sunday. Both Hanalei and Waimea buoys report the swell to be tracking close to model guidance. A High Surf Advisory is posted for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and north facing shores of Maui. West facing shores of the Big Island are also included as the new swell is expected to spread rapidly eastward this morning.
Deep low pressure presently situated just southeast of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula will deliver a long period swell next week with forerunners arriving as early as Sunday night. This large, long period west-northwest (310 degrees) swell is modeled to peak near advisory levels Monday night and hold through Tuesday before gradually declining through mid-week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov