West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 67 to 75. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 75. North winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 59 to 68. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Breezy. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades will be maintained through the next several days, with periods of passing windward and mauka showers embedded within. Thereafter, westward propagating ridging builds in east of the islands, resulting in drier conditions, despite possible trade showers continuing for windward and mauka areas.

Discussion

High pressure prevails well northeast of the islands, maintaining breezy to locally strong trades, however, will begin to weaken over the next several days resulting in weaker trades to more moderate levels. Latest observations showcase increased clouds and embedded showers within the trades, though predominately impacting windward and mauka areas.
Latest model guidance continues to support a weak upper-level low and associated trough passing in the vicinity of the state, likely enhancing trade shower activity for Kauai through Wednesday where increased moisture in conjunction with some weak instability will allow for some brief moderate showers, particularly over windward and mountain areas of Kauai. Elsewhere, shower activity remains relatively modest for most locations, but a passing shower or two cannot be ruled out throughout the middle of the week.
As the aforementioned upper-level trough exits to the north, upper-level ridging builds in its wake from the east, persisting through at least the weekend. While this should keep conditions drier for much of the islands, expect moderate to locally breezy trades to continue, facilitating the likeliness of light, embedded passing windward and mauka showers.

Aviation

Breezy trades prevail across the Hawaiian Islands through the next several days. Expect some low ceilings and limited shower activity over windward and mountain areas, which may lead to MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through at least tomorrow with the breezy trades.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for windward portions of the Big Island.

Marine

High pressure far northeast of the islands will drive fresh to locally strong trade winds today, then weaken slightly during the remainder of the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will remain in effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through late this afternoon. The SCA may have to be extended through tonight, but conditions appear to be borderline.
Early this morning, nearshore buoys were reporting south swell near 3 feet with a 15 second period. This south swell energy is expected to peak later today or early tonight, then slowly lower through the remainder of this week. Surf along south shores will become elevated during the peak of the swell, but should stay shy of High Surf Advisory criteria.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough today due to the breezy trades, then gradually decline as the trades weaken mid-week and beyond. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny with mainly background energy through the forecast period.
Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas through Thursday. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the daily peak tide each afternoon and may be exacerbated by the ongoing south swell as it peaks later today.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov