West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 80 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 75. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 67. East winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs 72 to 80. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 71 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs 72 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Ridge of high pressure will persist north of the state maintaining breezy trades. Occasional pockets of moisture embedded within the trades will mainly focus clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas for the next several days, especially overnight. Trade wind speeds could decrease early next week as a weak front approaches from the far northwest.

Discussion

A broad ridge of high pressure north of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to drive locally breezy easterly trade winds across the state. An upper jet continues to stream a thin layer of cirrus across the state and should shift north through the day. This morning satellite and radar imagery shows low level scattered clouds and showers mainly focused along windward and mauka areas. Rain gauge networks show that most locations have received very little or no rainfall overnight, except for some windward and mauka locations on Kauai. Observed 12Z soundings at Hilo and Lihue continues to show strong inversions between roughly 6,500 and 7,500 feet, with ample dry air aloft. The Kona slopes of the Big Island have cleared out over and but will likely see afternoon sea- breezes increases cloud and shower coverage.
Global forecast models remain in good agreement that the broad ridge of high pressure north of the state will remain nearly stationary through Saturday as it experiences minor fluctuations in intensity. This will maintain moderate to breezy trade winds across the main Hawaiian Islands into the weekend. Mid level ridging will keep an overall dry and stable airmass over the state, though pockets of low- level moisture trapped beneath the inversion will result in occasional windward and mauka showers, particularly during the overnight through early morning hours each day.
During the second half of the weekend and into early next week, the surface ridge will weaken and shift eastward as a front makes its way across the North Pacific and a new high develops far north- northwest of the state. As this occurs, trades will likely weaken a bit more and veer to become more east- southeasterly through mid-week. Showers are expected to be fairly limited throughout this time, mainly favoring windward and mauka areas during the overnight through early morning hours each day. The western half of the state may have a better chance of showers due to the proximity of the front and associated band of moisture. The second half of next week could see a slight up tick in windward and mauka showers as equatorial moisture is advected northward in the low to mid levels from a weak inverted trough moving from east to west across the state.

Aviation

AIRMET SIERRA has been issued for windward and mauka areas as clouds and showers have increase early this morning producing some MVFR conditions along windward and mauka areas. Conditions could improve this afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR conditions continue under a transparent shield of cirrus clouds.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level lee turb.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trade winds expected for the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the typical windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island through at least 6AM Saturday. Early next week a disturbance passing to the north of the islands may slightly weaken the trades.
The current south swell will continue to gradually fade to background levels through the weekend. Models show another small, long period south swell arriving Sunday into early next week that should boost south shore surf up to near average surf.
Surf along east shores will remain rough and choppy for the next several days. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny through the period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov