Drought relief predicted for Maui County

Maui County is moving into its winter wet season with the promise of relief as an emerging La Niña pattern is expected to bring above-normal rainfall through early 2026, according to the National Weather Service.

The seasonal outlook, released by forecaster Adam Allgood of the Climate Prediction Center, indicates that while drought conditions impacted nearly 87% of the state last month, the islands are the most likely to see conditions ease in the coming months.

Forecasters expressed moderate confidence in the outlook, noting that the predicted rain is typical during La Niña conditions.

Drought persists despite recent rains

As of Nov. 9, widespread drought and abnormal dryness continued to impact the entire state. Recent rain has provided some initial relief to the northwestern islands, but the situation remains critical in other regions.

On Dec. 5, the Maui County Department of Water Supply lifted, until further notice, a Stage 1 water shortage for Central and South Maui because of recent rainfall and community water conservation efforts.

On Nov. 12, the department downgraded the water shortage in Upcountry from Stage 2 to Stage 1. This change followed rainfall that improved surface water flows and helped replenish reservoirs.

Under the current Stage 1 status, mandatory conservation measures remain in place. Residents with even-numbered addresses may water their landscaping on Mondays and Fridays, while those with odd-numbered addresses are limited to Tuesdays and Saturdays.

La Niña brings wetter expectations

The shift toward a weak La Niña is historically brings an increase in rainfall across the islands. If heavy rains show up as expected, drought conditions are expected to improve or even be eliminated by the early spring.

The next seasonal drought outlook is scheduled to be issued Jan. 15.