Above-normal rainfall expected in Hawaiʻi through January

Forecasters with the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center are predicting above-normal rainfall for Hawaiʻi through January, providing a hopeful sign of relief for Maui County residents following months of severe drought.

However, drought is expected to persist on Hawaiʻi island where the forecast chances for rain are lower and the arid conditions have been more intractable.

The latest monthly drought outlook, released Dec. 31, indicates that an emerging La Niña pattern is expected to drive wetter-than-average conditions throughout the state. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a moderate level of confidence that drought conditions will improve or even be removed in many areas by the end of the month.

The forecast comes at a critical time for the island. As of late December, approximately 70% percent of the state remained under some form of drought designation. On Maui, severe drought has persisted in leeward areas and the central valley, while record-low stream flows were reported in East Maui earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, wetter weather has provided some relief. On Dec. 5, the Maui County Department of Water Supply lifted, until further notice, a Stage 1 water shortage for Central and South Maui because of recent rainfall and community water conservation efforts.

On Nov. 12, the department downgraded the water shortage in Upcountry from Stage 2 to Stage 1. This change followed rainfall that improved surface water flows and helped replenish reservoirs.

The drought’s impact was significant enough to lead the PGA Tour to cancel its 2026 season-opening event, The Sentry, normally held at the Plantation Course at Kapalua, the Hawaiʻi Journalism Initiative reported. The PGA Tour’s agronomy team visited Kapalua Resort in early September and concluded that the course’s conditions were severely impacted by the drought and water restrictions.

Despite the positive outlook for Central and South Maui, other regions remain under stricter controls. A Stage 2 water shortage remains in effect for West Maui. Under Stage 2 rules, all nonessential water use for commercial and industrial use should cease. Irrigation for West Maui residents is allowed no more than one day per week, and residents are prohibited from washing their cars. Also, customers are required to repair leaks, breaks or faulty sprinklers within three days.

Upcountry residents are under a Stage 1 water shortage, which means they’re being asked to conserve water. Irrigation is allowed no more than two days per week. Leaks must be repaired. Pools and ornamental ponds cannot be emptied and refilled.

The Climate Prediction Center noted that while the best odds for significant rainfall are favored for the northwest Hawaiian Islands, Kauaʻi and Oʻahu, although the moisture is expected to extend across the island chain. Forecasters report that La Niña conditions are favored to continue through at least February before potentially transitioning to a neutral pattern in the spring.

While the wet season outlook is promising, county officials continue to monitor reservoir levels and surface water flow. Residents are encouraged to maintain conservation habits, such as running dishwashers only with full loads and avoiding outdoor watering within 48 hours of rainfall.

The next seasonal drought outlook update from the National Weather Service is scheduled for Jan. 15.