Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 84. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 84. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs around 84. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 60 to 65. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs 69 to 77. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 64 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 63 to 84. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue through Friday. Expect enhanced trade wind showers through Thursday morning as a band of unsettled clouds rides through the islands on the trade winds. These showers will mainly form over windward and mountain slopes, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. Trade wind speeds will decrease slightly this weekend as high pressure weakens to the north and a low pressure system deepens far northwest of the island chain.

Discussion

The satellite imagery this morning continues to show a long band of unstable clouds embedded in the trade wind flow creeping towards Hawaii from the east. This unsettled cloud band will produce periods of showers mainly over windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. Expect decreasing shower coverage during the daylight hours. This period of enhanced showers will likely continue through Thursday morning.
In the big picture, a high pressure system will continue to linger 1000 miles northeast of the island chain through Friday, producing breezy to locally trade winds across the Hawaii region. Wind speeds may approach Wind Advisory thresholds in some wind favored locations over the Big Island from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. However, we are expecting wind speeds to remain just below advisory thresholds for these windier zones.
This high center will drift farther east from Friday to Saturday decreasing trade wind speeds as a cut off low pressure system deepens approximately 1000 miles northwest of Kauai. The cut off low at this time remains too far northwest of the islands to impact island weather. Expect winds to veer from a more east to southeast direction this weekend, and to decrease into more moderate trade wind levels from Saturday to Sunday. The weather forecast for this weekend appears fairly dry and sunny, another great weekend for outdoor activities.

Aviation

Breezy to locally strong trade winds will prevail for the next couple of days as a surface ridge remains to the north of the islands. Cloud bands with SHRA are moving in bringing MVFR conds to windward and mauka areas. Isol SHRA may make it to lee sides periodically dropping conds to MVFR but those should be brief.
AIRMET Sierra for mtn obsc is in effect for all islands and windward Big Island.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turb downwind of the terrain for all islands.

Marine

An area of high pressure will meander northeast of the state over the next few days, driving strong to locally near gale trades. The high is forecast to weaken over the weekend as a deep low develops northwest of the area. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters through tonight and will likely need to be extended for all or most waters through Thursday.
Surf heights along all shores will remain below advisory thresholds through the forecast period. A small, medium period northwest swell will fill in tonight, peak Thursday night. Another small, medium period northwest pulse will fill in Friday, peak late Friday into Saturday, and subside Sunday. Choppy, rough surf is expected all week along east facing shores due to persistent trade winds. A slight downtrend in surf is expected along east facing shores over the weekend as trades ease. South facing shores will continue to see small background swell pulses through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov