West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 69 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 69 to 77. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 71. East winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 83 to 91. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 72 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 75 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A low and associated trough north of the islands will remain embedded in a broad, quasi-stationary high pressure ridge, decreasing trade speeds across the state for the next several days, reduced to a hybrid sea breeze and trade wind pattern. Hot and dry conditions will prevail as little to no rainfall will be expected throughout the forecast period.

Discussion

A low and associated trough remains embedded within a broad, quasi- stationary high pressure ridge north of the islands and will continue to decrease trades to light to locally moderate speeds through the weekend. Hot and dry conditions are progged to prevail during this time as well. Latest satellite imagery depicts stable stratocumulus clouds being observed on windward sides of each island this morning. Furthering the point, temperature inversions from the latest 12z balloon launches at Hilo and Lihue sit in the 6,000 to 7,000 foot range, reassuring shower activity will be limited across the state.
Trade speeds reduce even more as the week progresses, resulting in a more hybrid sea breeze and trade wind pattern to develop, likely enhancing leeward and interior region shower activity. However, little to no precipitation is expected from any shower, with precipitation (QPF) values showcased under a hundredth of an inch for most locations through the next couple days. Furthermore, temperatures are progged to be very warm; upwards of 90 degrees in some areas, and is expected to continue through the forecast period. This has posed elevated fire weather concerns (see latest fire weather section).
Latest deterministic model guidance of the GFS and ECMWF is in good agreement that the aforementioned low and associated trough will eventually lift northward. This will open the door for the high pressure ridge to rebuild and may result in trades strengthening a bit toward the end of the forecast period.

Aviation

A hybrid sea breeze and light to locally moderate trade wind pattern will prevail through the next several days as a low pressure system weakens the high pressure ridge north of the islands. Expect VFR conditions to persist under a typical dry summer weather pattern.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected.

Marine

A weak trough embedded in the broader ridge north of the islands will keep gentle to locally fresh trades blowing through the weekend. Trade wind speeds might increase back to more typical levels by the middle of next week.
A small, long period south swell will trickle through the region maintaining below average surf along south and west facing shores. Another pulse of a small, long period south swell should start building later tonight into Thursday. This swell will to peak by Friday before declining over the weekend, and then returning to background levels early next week.
Small choppy surf along east facing shores will hold into Thursday before dropping notch as winds locally and upstream ease through the weekend into early next week.

Fire weather

Dry weather conditions will continue through the weekend due to low relative humidity values. However, low wind speeds remain to be the limiting factor for reaching critical fire weather thresholds. By midweek next week, the broad high pressure ridge will rebuild, and may result in winds strengthening a bit. Temperature inversion heights near Maui and the Big Island will range from around 6,000 to 7,000 feet today.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov