West Side

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 79. East winds 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 64 to 70. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 80. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 64 to 81. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 70. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 82. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Strong high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain breezy to locally windy trades supporting windward and mauka showers. As the high begins to meander northeastward, trades will ease a bit to a more moderate to breezy pattern, persisting through the rest of the week. Some models are hinting at unsettled weather returning to the islands by the weekend, but there's still a fair bit of uncertainty this far out.

Discussion

Strong area of high pressure will remain anchored north of the islands while a trough of low pressure continues moving southwest away from the islands will help in maintaining breezy to locally windy trades, namely across the more wind-prone locations. Trades are progged to ease up in the next 12 to 24 hours though, transitioning to a more moderate to locally breezy regime for much of the state as the aforementioned area of high pressure meanders eastward.
Isolated showers persist across the eastern half of the state with lingering remnant moisture from earlier this week, expected to remain in the vicinity of the Big Island. Furthermore, the moisture will be deep enough to be a catalyst for wintry precipitation on the summits of the Big Island, where the temperature has been flirting around the cusp of freezing, supporting freezing rain and some accumulating snowfall. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Big Island summits through 6 PM HST today to account for any wintry precipitation.
A more typical trade wind pattern returns to round out the end of the standard work week, bringing periods of enhanced showers and increased clouds to windward and mauka locations. Model guidance has been hinting at the probability of some unsettled weather coming to the Hawaiian Islands during the weekend period. The American Model (GFS) and the European Model (ECMWF) continue to project a band of moisture remaining west of the islands throughout the weekend and even into early next week, suggesting the typical trade wind pattern will persist during this time, however, the GFS eventually brings the moisture over the islands while the ECMWF does not. Given this uncertainty, and for the sake of forecast continuity, will continue to advertise trade winds to prevail until details become more fruitful closer to the event.

Aviation

Breezy trades with windward SHRA expected for the next few days. Low cigs and MVFR conds in heavier SHRA possible. VFR conds prevail elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all of Kauai and Oahu, as well as the N thru SE sections of Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod to isol severe turb below 070 for leeward sides of the islands and mod turb between FL220 to FL380 over entire area.
Light icing remains possible in cloud layer 120-FL250 across the state.

Marine

Seas have remained at or above 10 feet due to the strong trade wind fetch from the last several days. As a result, the High Surf Advisory (HSA) for east facing shores has been extended through today. Seas should be on the decrease, and will likely fall below 10 feet close to shore by this afternoon, which would allow the HSA to be dropped. That being said, seas in excess of 10 feet are expected to linger over some of the coastal waters, a factor in the extension of the Small Craft Advisory (SCA). The SCA was expanded to include all coastal waters, and extended through Thursday due to a combination of winds and seas. Winds are expected remain above SCA through the remainder of the week, and a new swell Friday afternoon/night will bring additional SCA level seas to exposed coastal waters.
A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to slowly drift eastward over the next few days. This has already resulted in fresh to strong trades, that are expected to persist into the weekend.
As mentioned above, the HSA for east facing shores has been extended through today. Even as surf falls below HSA levels, elevated surf heights along east facing shores will keep rough conditions in the forecast just below surf advisory thresholds into Friday.
Small to medium northwest swells will continue through the week with smaller surf lingering in the forecast along north and west facing shores for the foreseeable future. A short-lived northwest swell arriving Friday afternoon will help to boost seas above 10 feet for exposed northern coastal waters. Small background medium period south swell energy will keep surf heights along the south facing shores on the tiny side lasting into early next week.
Thunderstorms remain a possibility in the offshore waters to the west and northwest of the Hawaiian coastal waters, due to an upper level trough in the area. While this upper level feature is expected to weaken over the next couple of days, a new developing mid to upper level trough moving in from the northwest will maintain the possibility for thunderstorms through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Olomana, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Kauai East, East Honolulu, Koolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Haleakala, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters,

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov