Tropical Storm Calvin forecast to strengthen into hurricane on Thursday

Update: July 15, 2023

The latest forecast indicates Calvin may move near the main Hawaiian Islands as a weakening tropical storm Tuesday night or Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service. It was last located about 1800 miles ESE of the Big Island and was moving WNW at 16 mph.

Calvin is currently expected to move into the Central Pacific late Sunday as a tropical storm. The National Weather Service says Calvin is forecast to pass very close to, and possibly over the islands from Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, bringing the potential for locally strong wind gusts, flooding rain, and high surf.

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Update: July 14, 2023

Calvin in the eastern Pacific, has rapidly intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.  

The system was last located about 1080 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California; 2140 miles ESE of Hilo, Hawaiʻi; and 2210 miles ESE of Hāna, Maui. It is moving west at 16 mph. 

Calvin is expected to move into the Central Pacific Basin late Sunday or early Monday, according to forecasters.  Its remnants will likely impact the state beginning next week Tuesday, but forecasters with the National Weather Service say its still too early for details.  

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Update: July 13, 2023

Calvin has become the third hurricane of the East Pacific season. 

The National Weather Service says Calvin continues to intensify and is expected to move in the Central Pacific basin late Sunday. The National Weather Service reports that Calvin will likely impact the state beginning next Tuesday, with the potential for windy and wet weather mid week. Hawaiʻi’s synopsis indicates that it’s still too early to forecast details.

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Previous post: July 12, 2023

Windy conditions and some wet weather could potentially develop around the middle of next week as Tropical Storm Calvin nears the islands from the east, according to the National Weather Service.

Tropical Storm Calvin, which is currently in the Eastern Pacific, is forecast to become a hurricane Thursday, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

TS Calvin is the third named storm of the 2023 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The others were Adrian, which reached Category 2 Hurricane strength on June 30 before eventually weakening on July 2; and Beatriz, which developed into a Category 1 Hurricane on June 30 before weakening into a tropical storm on July 1, 2023.

At around 5 a.m. HST, TS Calvin was located 720 miles SSW of the southern tip of Baja California; 2875 miles ESE of Hilo; and 2935 miles ESE of Hāna, Maui.

It was moving toward the west at 16 mph, and had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

The National Hurricane Center reports that by the weekend, Calvin is expected to cross over cooler sea surface temperatures, which will likely cause gradual weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.

For the 2023 season, 4 to 7 tropical cyclones are predicted for the Central Pacific hurricane region. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

The Central Pacific hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through November 30.