Maui Weather

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 73. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 54 to 67. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 64 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will prevail today, then ease through the first half of next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas with a few showers spilling leeward during this time. The trades will cut off late Wednesday through Thursday as a front approaches from the north, with showers favoring the island interiors each afternoon. A cold front could bring some more widespread rainfall to the island chain Thursday night and Friday, with the potential for some heavier showers and even a few thunderstorms not out of the question. A transition back to a more typical trade wind pattern is expected next weekend.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a ridge of high pressure is positioned around 400 miles north of Kauai, while a cold front is located around 1150 miles west-northwest of the Garden Isle. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds prevail across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions in windward areas and clear to partly cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous trade wind showers moving into windward slopes and coasts with some of these showers reaching leeward areas at times. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances.
The ridge of high pressure north of the islands will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place today. The trades will ease slightly tonight and Monday as an approaching front weakens the ridge north of the state. The trades will briefly rebound back to moderate levels Tuesday as a new high builds north-northwest of the islands and a trough of low pressure sets up to the northeast. The trades will begin easing again Wednesday as a new front begins to approach from the northwest. Light and variable winds will develop Wednesday night and continue into Thursday ahead of the front, with moderate to locally breezy northeasterly trades filling in from northwest to southeast down the island chain Thursday night and Friday behind the front. A new high building northwest of the state will then keep moderate to locally breezy northeasterly trades in place next weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, a fairly typical winter time trade wind pattern will prevail through Wednesday, with showers favoring windward slopes and coasts. Showers will be most prevalent during the overnight and early morning hours, with a few showers reaching leeward areas from time to time. As the trades cut off Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, showers will decrease in coverage and favor the island interiors each afternoon and the coastal waters at night. Depending on the strength and progression of a cold front into/through the islands Thursday night and Friday, we could see more widespread rain affect the islands, with some heavier showers and even some thunderstorms not out of the question. In the wake of the front, we will transition back into a trade wind regime next weekend.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will bring scattered showers to mainly windward locations through the remainder of this morning. Expect brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility to accompany this activity. Isolated showers elsewhere.
An upper level low is forecast to bring moderate turbulence, with isolated pockets of severe turbulence, over the eastern portions of the state late this morning through the afternoon, mainly in the mid to upper levels. An AIRMET or SIGMET may be needed if these conditions materialize.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level mechanical turbulence associated with the breezy trade winds.

Marine

Surface high pressure far northeast of the state will drive moderate to locally strong trades today before easing slightly through the first half of the week as the ridge to the north weakens and a front passes by to the north. The trades are expected to become disrupted entirely by Thursday with light winds over the marine area as a potential cold front moves through the area. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently in effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big island through 6 pm HST today.
A new moderate long-period northwest swell has begun to fill in across north and west facing shores. Surf is expected to peak this afternoon, then lower on Monday but remain below High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels. A slightly larger northwest swell will arrive early Monday, peak Monday through Tuesday, then gradually decline through Thursday. This swell will bring surf heights up to HSA criteria for most north and west facing shores Monday through Tuesday night. Then, an even larger, long-period northwest swell is expected fill in for the end of the week that could bring High Surf Warning (HSW) level surf to most north and west facing shores Friday.
Surf along east facing shores will hold relatively steady today, then lower a bit Monday and Tuesday as the trades ease. East shore surf looks to become very small Wednesday and Thursday as the trades become disrupted, with a north swell potentially giving surf a boost to exposed shorelines on Friday.
South shore surf will remain very small through the middle of the week. An out of season long-period south swell may move through the islands at the end of the week, bringing a sizable boost to south shore surf.

Fire weather

No critical fire conditions anticipated during the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov