West Side

Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 65 to 71. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 79. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 64 to 73. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 84. Light winds becoming west up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Highs 80 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 66. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 77. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 67. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Cloudy. Highs 70 to 78. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 83. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 56 to 70. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Cloudy. Highs 68 to 83. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy southeast winds continue through Tuesday night, followed by a return of trades. Showers, mainly windward and mauka, are forecast to be with us through Thursday. Drier weather and continued trades are expected by next weekend.

Discussion

After increasing briefly in coverage and intensity Friday evening, showers have become isolated and light early this morning. Satellite images show partly to mostly cloudy skies over most of the state as of 2:30 AM HST.
A cold front will approach the western islands today and tonight, but stall before it reaches Kauai County. It will then remain nearly stationary Sunday before withdrawing to the northwest Sunday night through Tuesday. Aloft, a weakening trough will slide north of the area today into tonight. The waning strength of this trough is why the front will stall out and then recede.
Southeast surface winds are forecast to continue through early Wednesday. This will allow for a seabreeze to develop on the lee side of the Big Island, much as it did Friday. And therefore some enhancement of inland showers there is to be expected. These will be replaced by trades as a surface high pressure system moves close enough to exert its influence. Trades are then expected to continue through at least next weekend. Throughout this period, mainly windward and mauka showers should persist. During the southeast winds, showers will also focus a little to the south of areas typically considered windward. Once the trades return Wednesday, showers will fully return to the standard windward areas. The best chance for showers over western islands will be today through Tuesday. Early indications for Friday and beyond is for drier weather with continued trades.

Aviation

Southeast winds will continue in most areas. PHKO will be a notable exception, where southwest winds are forecast in the afternoon as a seabreeze develops. Otherwise, showers focused mainly windward (shifted southeast somewhat) and mauka will continue today into this evening. VFR except for brief MVFR in heavier showers.
No AIRMETS are in effect or expected.

Marine

A cold front approaching the islands from northwest will allow winds to veer southeasterly and weaken through this weekend. Thus, the Small Craft Advisory Criteria (SCA) for the typical windy waters around Maui county and the Big Island has been cancelled. The front is then forecast to stall west of Kauai late this weekend and dissipate by early next week. Surface high pressure building back north of the region will bring a return to moderate to locally fresh easterly trades by mid-next week.
The current small to moderate, medium-period, north-northeast (020-040 degree) swell has been steadily dropping overnight, as noted on both Hilo and Pauwela buoys. Thus, the Marine Weather Statement highlighting moderate harbor surges at select north facing harbors will not be extended beyond early this morning. A moderate to large, medium- to long- period, northwest (320-340 degree) swell is expected to arrive late Sunday into Monday and last through mid next week. This swell could generate surf near High Surf Advisory levels during its peak along north and west facing shores from Monday night into Wednesday.
Small surf expected along east facing beaches this weekend due to the lack of any trade winds. Rough and choppy surf will begin to return to east facing shores by early next week as easterly trades strengthen. Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny to small through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov