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Regional Maui Weather Forecast February 18, 2025
West Side
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Side
Today: Sunny. Highs 74 to 85. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 67. Light winds.
Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 85. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
North Shore
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Central Maui
Today: Sunny. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 69. East winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Upcountry
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 52 to 70. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 51 to 69. East winds up to 15 mph.
East Maui
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Lanai City
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 79. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 65. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69 to 79. Light winds.
Kaunakakai
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 55 to 72. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 67 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Synopsis
Easterly trade winds are spreading across the Hawaii Islands this morning with brief periods of typical trade wind showers over the windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. By Thursday an upper level ridge builds over the state and spreads drying trends across the region lasting into early next week. Another cold front will approach the island chain this weekend from the northwest direction and weaken the trade winds. This front stalls just north of Kauai and dissipates from Sunday to Monday. Light to moderate easterly trade winds return by next week Tuesday.
Discussion
This mornings satellite and local radar imagery shows cloud remnants from a dissipated convergence band over Molokai and Oahu drifting westward in the trade winds. Some enhanced showers are expected along this shallow cloud band over windward and mountain areas of Oahu this morning as trade winds push the clouds up the Koolau Mountain slopes. Moderate trade winds will continue through Wednesday with brief periods of windward and mountain shower activity.
From Wednesday night to Friday, a high pressure ridge builds in over the islands, strong subsidence (downward vertical motions) under this ridge will stabilize the Hawaii region by setting up a cloud capping temperature inversion around 4,000 to 5,000 feet above sea level. Expect only isolated showers in this stable pattern.
By Saturday the upper level pattern changes from a strong ridge aloft to weak cyclonic troughing as another shallow cold front approaches the islands from the northwest. Two minor weather changes will develop this weekend, a slight increase in shower activity into the scattered range, and trade winds will weaken becoming more light to moderate southeasterly winds as the approaching front begins to weaken the surface ridge over the islands. Expect land and sea breezes to expand in coverage over all islands from Saturday into Monday. This approaching cold front will likely stall out just north of Kauai and diminish early next week with little impacts to our island weather.
Aviation
A surface high will move eastward just north of the islands which should support the return of some light to moderate trades by tHIS afternoon. With these trades the return of windward and mauka low cigs and SHRA with MVFR possible. VFR conds should return to the rest of the small islands outside any SHRA.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc from Kauai to Molokai. Conds should improve later this morning.
Marine
Expect decreasing shower coverage today as a weak front dissipates north of Oahu. Light to moderate east to east- southeast flow will return statewide late today through the remainder of this week as a ridge of high pressure becomes more established north of the state.
A series of west-northwest to northwest (300-320 degree) swells are expected over the next several days with the first of the series peaking by late this morning. At 2 AM HST, NDBC Buoy 51101, west of Kauai, indicated a 8 foot, medium to long period, northwest swell entering our coastal waters. This supports the High Surf Advisory (HSA) along north and west facing shores of most islands, which remains in effect through 6 PM HST Wednesday. For west facing shores of the Big Island, the HSA goes into effect at 6 AM HST this morning. In addition, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for hazardous seas for waters exposed to these large swells was extended to 6 AM HST Wednesday. Nearshore and offshore buoys indicate significant wave heights hovering near 10 feet. Another reinforcing swell is expected on Wednesday, which should maintain advisory level surf along north and west shores into Thursday.
Due to the lack of strong trades, small surf is expected along east facing shores this week. A slight increase is possible today through the second half of the week as light to moderate east to east-southeast trades become more established. Surf along south facing shores should see a small boost on Wednesday as a small south swell fills in and should produce some rideable surf throughout the second half of the week. Select exposures could also see some small wrap from the large west-northwest swell over the next several days.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui.
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM HST Wednesday for west facing shores of the Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for most waters and channels near Kauai and Oahu, including Maui Windward Waters.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov