West Side

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 65 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 77 to 82. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 66 to 73. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 64 to 74. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 85. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Haze. Lows 64 to 75. Light winds.

North Shore

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 80 to 86. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 43 to 53. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 63. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Haze. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 64. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 55 to 71. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Haze. Highs 69 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 56 to 72. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A cold front currently moving into Kauai and Niihau this evening will stall out and weaken near the Kauai Channel from Thursday into Friday. Expect wet weather across Kauai County during this time period with some enhanced showers moving into Oahu. Trade winds will begin to build back into the islands by Friday, strengthening into the moderate to breezy range from Saturday onward with periods of enhanced showers lasting through much of next week.

Discussion

A cold frontal cloud band currently moving from west to east into Kauai and Niihau this evening will produce wet weather across Kauai County for the next two days. Trade winds will quickly build in across the region behind the front over Kauai on Thursday afternoon, then spread eastward across the state on Friday. Light southerly winds tonight ahead of the front may produce brief periods of showers for the other islands lasting into Thursday.
The latest short range model solutions continue to show the forward motion on the front stalling out as the frontal boundary moves into the Kauai Channel by Thursday night. Most islands will continue to see light land and sea breeze weather conditions in place through Thursday. Northeasterly trade winds will fill in across the front over Kauai on Thursday, enhancing showers over north and east slopes of the Garden Isle, and to some degree over Oahu with this approaching frontal system. The frontal band will then weaken over the Kauai Channel as easterly trade winds spread across the state on Friday. Easterly trade winds will then push the cloud band associated with the remnant cold front will then drift westward back over Kauai and Niihau from late Friday into Saturday. More typical trade wind weather remains in the forecast for the rest of the state through the weekend.
The forecast next week shows a high confidence easterly trade wind weather pattern continues with a period of enhanced showers from a cloud band moving in from the north. This cloud band is associated with the remnants of a dissipated frontal band originating in the eastern Pacific. Enhanced shower activity will favor windward and mountain areas during the Tuesday morning through Friday morning time period. Higher chances for showers are likely during the typical overnight to early morning hours.

Aviation

A frontal boundary approaching from the northwest will become cause winds to become light and variable over the state tonight. An uptick of showers over the western end of the state is expected late tonight into Thursday as moisture streams in from the south ahead of the front. Periods of MVFR are likely within the heavier showers. The eastern half of the state will see moderate to locally breezy southeasterly winds continue, with localized sea breezes in sheltered areas. Conditions should remain mostly VFR.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
All areas will continue to see some Vog due to the ongoing eruption of Kilauea. However, Vog is not expected to impact visibilities enough to warrant a mention in any TAF.

Marine

A slow moving cold front over the far northwest waters will move over Kauai tonight, stall just west of Oahu on Thursday, then gradually dissipate. Light to moderate southeast winds ahead of the front will weaken and become more southerly by morning. Behind the front, winds will shift northerly. Moderate to locally strong trade winds will reestablish themselves across the state Friday night into Saturday and persist into the coming week.
The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for locally accelerated east and southeast winds in waters around the Big Island has been cancelled as wind speeds have ease below criteria. SCA conditions may return first for the western half of the state as early as Friday then for the rest of the state over the weekend as strong trades winds return and seas build to 10 feet or greater due to a large north swell.
A small west northwest (290-310) swell will gradually fade tonight. A small to moderate medium period north northwest swell (330-340) will fill in Thursday keeping small surf through much of the day. The swell will continue to build through Friday generating surf near to just below advisory level along north and west facing shores. A large to extra large, long period swell (350-360) will quickly build in Saturday that will likely produce warning level surf along north facing shores with advisory level surf across west and east facing shores through the weekend. This swell, aside from being hazardous to small craft, could generate harbor surges along north facing bays and inlets.
Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny into the weekend with mainly background energy dominating. A small long period south swell may fill in later over the weekend into early next week and provide a small boost to surf along south facing shores.
Surf along east facing shores will remain low through Thursday, but bump up slightly over the weekend with the return of trade wind flow over and upstream of the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov