Maui Weather

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning, then isolated showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 75 to 81. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83. South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 73. North winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 84. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Haze in the morning. Numerous showers early in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Haze. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Haze in the morning. Isolated showers early in the morning, then isolated showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Haze in the morning. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 55 to 68. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Haze in the morning. Numerous showers early in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 77. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 63. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 83. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 56 to 73. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 68 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Synopsis

A line of showers associated with a cold front over the Kauai Channel will reach Oahu around daybreak, then stall before it reaches Molokai later today through Thursday. Lingering residual moisture combined with an upper disturbance moving into the area will keep rainfall chances around through the second half of the week. As trade winds gradually return, the focus of rainfall will shift to windward and mauka areas later in the week through early next week.

Discussion

The short-term guidance remains in good agreement, showing a cold front, currently over the Kauai Channel, continuing eastward this morning before stalling between Oahu and Molokai later today through Thursday. While most of the dynamics and deeper moisture are expected to remain to the north, plenty of low-level moisture pooling northward over the state will keep the rainfall chances up.
Ahead of the front, spotty and brief showers developing and lifting northward across the islands will remain possible. The primary line of showers along the front that is moving through the Kauai Channel will reach Oahu around daybreak before it begins to stall. With southwest flow prevailing ahead of the front, rainfall will primarily favor west- and south-facing slopes, with brief heavier showers possible. Rainfall associated with this main line of showers has exceeded an inch for parts of Kauai as it moved through, which will be possible over portions of Oahu during the next 24 hours. Moderate southwest winds will gradually ease through the day as the front stalls.
Winds have shifted out of the west-northwest behind the front over Kauai this morning, which supports the best chance for mainly light, post-frontal rainfall continuing over west- through north- facing slopes today. A similar pattern is expected on Oahu later today, with northeast to east trade winds returning statewide Thursday through the weekend as high pressure builds to the north. Residual moisture lingering near the stalled front, combined with an upper trough moving through and closing off over the eastern half of the state will sustain rainfall chances into the second half of the week. With the trades in place, rainfall will primarily focus over windward and mauka areas.
Additional instability from the cold pool aloft may lead to a few heavier showers or even isolated thunderstorms, particularly from Oahu to the Big Island later this week as the upper trough moves into the area and begins to close off. For the Big Island summits, this setup could support periods of wintry precipitation from late Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation

A cold front will move away from Kauai this morning, while the rest of the state remains under a deep south to southwest wind flow. The front will move into and stall over Oahu around sunrise this morning, producing extensive MVFR conditions with showers and mountain obscurations through much of the day. Elsewhere, brief periods of low clouds and showers will develop over south and west slopes of the eastern islands in southerly kona winds.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscurations over Kauai this morning as the cold front quickly moves through the island. This AIRMET will be cancelled for Kauai around sunrise this morning and issued for Oahu as the front moves eastward.

Marine

An extra-large WNW swell will bring dangerously high surf to exposed N and W facing shores through Thursday. With peak surf heights near 40 feet expected in exposed locations today, a High Surf Warning remains posted for most N and W facing shores. Swells of varying periods will arrive concurrently, with shorter-period “fresh swell” arriving in conjunction with longer-period swells, leading to somewhat jumbled surf conditions, and more consistent sets.
Overnight observations from NDBC buoys 51001/51101 NW of Kauai have been fairly consistent, with significant wave heights between 18 and 21 feet. As these swells propagate through island waters, resultant surf will peak today, then gradually diminish into Saturday. Surf heights will likely fall below High Surf Warning levels Thursday night, and below High Surf Advisory heights by Saturday. A new, moderate northwest swell is possible Sunday. With the swell so large, combined seas 10 feet or greater have warranted a Small Craft Advisory for all Hawaiian coastal waters (except Maalaea Bay) through Thursday.
A cold front is currently over the Kauai Channel, moving E at 10 to 15 kt. The front will bring a period of increased low clouds and showers to waters around kauai and Oahu while winds will diminish and veer to the W and NW shortly after after it passes. When the front stalls near Oahu and Molokai later today and tonight, moderate N to NE winds will strengthen N and W of the front, while winds over Big Island and Maui waters will remain light and variable. The dissipating low-level boundary associated with the stalled front will then diminish through Thursday night as high pressure builds N of the islands, leading to moderate to fresh trade winds statewide that will persist through the weekend.
Although the frontal boundary will dissipate, lingering moisture will become enhanced by a developing low aloft that will begin to destabilize the island atmosphere tonight. The low will persist for several days, bringing the potential for isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours from late tonight into the weekend.

Fire weather

No critical fire weather conditions are expected through the week due to enhanced moisture and rainfall chances associated with a front stalling in the area.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala, Big Island South.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov