West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 77. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 80. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 61 to 70. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the evening.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 79. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 75 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 77. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 63 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

:

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 63 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 53 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 63 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Typical moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through this weekend and bring mainly night and morning scattered showers to windward and mauka locations. By early next week, a deepening trough northwest of the state will pull up a more moisture rich tropical air mass over the state and increase precipitation chances. Some of the rain could be heavy, especially mid- to late next week.

Discussion

Water vapor imagery loop from this morning showed very dry air in the mid and upper levels entrenched over and east of the state, aside from a thin layer of high clouds passing over the Big Island. This can also be noted on the latest 12Z RAOB soundings from both Hilo and Lihue, with a rather dramatic dry layer residing above a 6000 ft deep boundary layer temperature inversion. At the surface, an area of high pressure, anchored roughly 1000 miles north of Hawaii continued to drive moderate to locally breezy east northeasterly trades. Scattered low clouds caught up in this flow have been pushing towards windward portions of the islands for the last several hours. Several windward stations on each island picked of a few hundredths of an inch of accumulation, but nothing of significance.
Today through Friday, the pattern will change very little with moderate to locally breezy trades driving light scattered showers along mainly windward and mauka locations. The greatest shower activity can be expected to occur during the night and early morning hours. By this weekend, the aforementioned high well north of the area drifts east as a frontal system approaches. This should allow the local surface pressure gradient around the region to ease and trades to weaken slightly. Low clouds and showers will be isolated at best with a shallow boundary layer in the lower levels and dry air in place aloft.
By Monday, both the GFS and ECMWF begin to dig a broad upper trough well northwest of the state. Light background flow around the islands will become southeasterly, veering to southerly late Tuesday. With such light flow and slightly deeper lower level moisture in place, afternoon sea breezes could help initiate a few showers over interior portions of the islands.
Mid to late next week, models continue to deepen the upper level trough west of the islands and induce a low and cold front at the surface. Guidance has been consistent with this solution for the last several runs, so confidence is increasing. This would set the stage for tropical moisture being drawn northward across the Hawaiian Islands by deep layer southerly or south southwesterly flow out and a destabilizing atmosphere aloft. As it stands, the ECMWF generates a more compact and robust parent surface low compared to the GFS. Nonetheless, both models indicate the potential for gusty southerly winds and rounds of moderate to heavy rain. Thus, flooding may once again be a concern. The details for timing, location, and strength will need to be refined in the coming days.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy ENE trades persist through the period, with a gradual weakening expected through the remainder of the week. Embedded isolated trade showers continue, primarily affecting windward and mauka areas, occasionally lowering ceilings and visibility to MVFR at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Weakening high pressure north of the islands will shift eastward over the next few days, leading to a weakening of the trade winds into the moderate range. Winds could then veer out of the southeast next week ahead of an approaching front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through tonight.
The current mid period northeast swell (7 ft, 9-11 seconds at 040 degrees) will gradually decrease today as the northeast trade winds slowly decrease. As a result, east shore surf will gradually decline today through the rest of the week, but will still retain a little size and chop due to the moderate to locally breezy trades.
The next small, medium-period northwest (310 degree) swell will arrive this weekend into next week and bring a small bump in surf for north and west facing shores. A larger mid period northwest swell is then possible by the middle of next week. Along south facing shores, expect small reinforcements to sustain small surf through the week until a slightly larger long period south swell fills in early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov