Maui Weather

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 63 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 73. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 84. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Synopsis

Typical trade wind weather is expected for most of this week, with moderate to breezy wind speeds and scattered showers focused over windward and mountain areas primarily during the overnight and morning hours. The exception is Tuesday into Wednesday, when a plume of moisture is forecast to move in from the east, increasing windward shower activity. Trades will weaken Friday into next weekend.

Discussion

Surface high pressure remains centered far northeast of the state, driving moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds, with a mid to upper-level trough just east of the Big Island. The latest satellite and radar imagery shows the band of enhanced low clouds and showers near Kauai and Oahu yesterday evening has weakened and shifted just north of Kauai early this morning. There is also a small area of showers moving into windward Big Island, but mostly isolated clouds and showers elsewhere around the state. Overnight rainfall totals have been mostly in the quarter to half inch range for Kauai, with totals remaining minimal elsewhere, owing to a fairly shallow low-level moisture pool.
Through the day today, we should return to our typical fair trade wind weather with moderate to breezy trade winds and isolated to scattered showers over windward and mauka areas. On Tuesday, a plume of moisture will move in from the east, which should give a boost to shower activity over windward and mauka areas of Maui County and the Big Island during the day. The rest of the islands should see an increase in windward showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the plume continues westward and lingers around Kauai. A dry air mass will follow on Wednesday.
Thursday night into Friday, trades will begin to weaken and veer out of the southeast as a front approaches the state from the northwest. Friday should be a transition day, with light southeast flow over the western half of the state and moderate to locally breezy east to east-southeast winds over the eastern half. Expect a light and variable wind pattern with mostly fair weather for next weekend.
A hot spot over Halemaumau Crater on the Big Island continues to be seen on infrared satellite imagery. The University of Hawaii Vog Model shows that SO2 emissions should remain confined to portions of the Big Island and adjacent waters to the west and southwest through most of this week. However, vog will likely increase across the rest of the state Friday through the weekend as the trades weaken and veer out of the southeast.

Aviation

Breezy easterly trade winds will persist throughout the 24 hour period, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are expected in showers, particularly over the western end of the state, where a remnant low-level band of moisture remains. Conditions should gradually improve through the day as this band of moisture diminishes and shifts north of the area. Another area of moisture moving over the eastern end of the state has led to increasing shower coverage for the windward areas of Big Island, which may persist and spread to Maui through the early morning hours today.
An AIRMET SIERRA for temporary mountain obscuration is in effect for windward Kauai and will likely persist through the early morning hours. This may need to be expanded to cover the windward areas of the Big Island later this morning due to the increasing shower coverage.

Marine

Multiple overlapping northwest swells (300-320) are expected through Friday and beyond. Surf heights will likely reach advisory levels on Thursday, Friday, and possibly into the weekend along exposed north and west facing shores. Surf along south and east facing shores is expected to remain small through the week.
Strong high pressure over the northeast Pacific will hold over the next several days then gradually weaken. So will fresh to strong trade winds across most local waters. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended through Tuesday.

Fire weather

No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next seven days. Trade winds will continue to remain at moderate to locally breezy speeds with relative humidities staying above critical levels through most of this week. Trades should ease by next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov